The sensitivity of electric power infrastructure resilience to the spatial distribution of disaster impacts
The sensitivity of electric power infrastructure resilience to the spatial distribution of disaster impacts
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2019.106658
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发表时间：
2019-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Benjamin A. Rachunok;R. Nateghi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Benjamin A. Rachunok;R. Nateghi
可信地评估能源基础设施在面对自然灾害时的弹性是研究人员、政府官员和社区成员面临的一个突出问题。在这里，我们探索飓风和其他自然灾害造成的中断的空间分布对配电系统弹性的影响。我们发现，纳入有关灾害影响的空间分布的信息对于估计基础设施的复原力具有重要意义。具体地说，与估计的基础设施对空间分布的灾难导致的中断的恢复能力指标相关的不确定性远远高于以前的方法确定的不确定性。我们给出了一个受大飓风影响的配电网的案例研究。我们发现，灾难中断的改进特征极大地改变了网格恢复的方式，包括紧急系统属性的变化，如抗脆弱性。我们的工作表明，由于缺乏对中断空间结构的考虑，以前估计关键基础设施恢复能力的方法可能夸大了与估计的网络恢复相关的置信度。
Credibly assessing the resilience of energy infrastructure in the face of natural disasters is a salient concern facing researchers, government officials, and community members. Here, we explore the influence of the spatial distribution of disruptions due to hurricanes and other natural hazards on the resilience of power distribution systems. We find that incorporating information about the spatial distribution of disaster impacts has significant implications for estimating infrastructure resilience. Specifically, the uncertainty associated with estimated infrastructure resilience metrics to spatially distributed disaster-induced disruptions is much higher than determined by previous methods. We present a case study of an electric power distribution grid impacted by a major landfalling hurricane. We show that improved characterizations of disaster disruption drastically change the way in which the grid recovers, including changes in emergent system properties such as antifragility. Our work demonstrates that previous methods for estimating critical infrastructure resilience may be overstating the confidence associated with estimated network recoveries due to the lack of consideration of the spatial structure of disruptions.