Effect of planning policies on land use dynamics and livelihood opportunities under global environmental change: Evidence from the Mekong Delta
Effect of planning policies on land use dynamics and livelihood opportunities under global environmental change: Evidence from the Mekong Delta
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106752
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发表时间：
2023-05-29
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Darby, Stephen E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berchoux, Tristan;Hutton, Craig W.;Darby, Stephen E.
在气候变化和越南农业转型的背景下，湄公河三角洲面临着向越南及其出口市场国家供应农产品、确保生计和为其不断增长的人口提供生存空间的重大挑战。人为因素，如控制河流洪水的堤防建设、河砂开采、三季稻生产的进一步发展、基础设施的发展，以及气候变化对沉积物和水分可用性的影响，都在共同威胁着农业生产。可持续发展的主要挑战之一是需要确定基于不同土地管理战略的农业社会生态系统的合理未来状态，并描述这些系统对景观和就业的影响。从文献和快速农村评估中假设，每个土地制度只能提供一定数量的就业机会，这一点通过二项回归进一步证明。我们发现，集约化农业系统（三种水稻的OR=0.78，集约化水产养殖的OR= 0.91）的就业几率低于多样化系统（水稻-水产养殖的OR=1.16，混合果树的OR=1.63）。根据与地方和国家利益相关者的研讨会，我们在空间土地利用系统动态框架中使用地球观测和全国人口普查数据，基于气候路径RCP 4.5，结合两项现有政策(i)第124号决议（专门化），促进三种作物水稻和水产养殖集约化；（ii）第639号决议（多样化），模拟湄公河三角洲的两种替代未来。该报告指出，应该发展可持续的水稻水产养殖和作物多样化。根据每项政策的量化目标，我们估计了如果任何一项政策占主导地位，土地利用系统提供的服务可能发生的变化。每种未来情景对就业提供的估计影响最终表明，多样化发展范式的政策将比专业化范式的政策（-46%）提供更多的就业（+0.9%），而当前的政策可能会产生相互矛盾的后果。推动集约化农业的决定可能会引发农村失业和人口外迁，从而可能加剧芹苴和胡志明市等大城市的城市贫困。另一方面，旨在促进农业系统多样化的决定有助于确保更多的就业机会。我们的研究结果表明，空间规划政策应依赖于对土地系统服务（包括就业和环境影响）的广泛评估，以确保向弹性和环境可持续的农村地区公正过渡。
The Mekong Delta faces significant challenges in supplying Vietnam and its export market countries with agricultural commodities, while ensuring livelihoods and providing living space to its growing population in the context of climate change and the country's agrarian transition. Anthropogenic factors, such as the construction of dykes to control river flooding, river sand mining, the further development of triple-cropping rice production, and infrastructure development, together with climate change impacts on sediment and water availability, are all combining to threaten agricultural production. One of the key challenges in sustainable development is the need to identify plausible future states of agricultural-based socio-ecological systems which draw upon differing strategies of land management, and to characterise the impacts of these systems on both the landscape and employment. It was hypothesised from the literature and rapid rural appraisals that each land system can only provide a certain number of jobs, which was further demonstrated using binomial regressions. We show that the odds of being employed are lower for intensive agricultural systems (OR=0.78 for triple rice; 0.91 for intensive aquaculture) than for diversified systems (OR=1.16 for rice-aquaculture; OR=1.63 for mixed fruit trees). Drawing from workshops with local and national stakeholders, we then used Earth observation and national census data in a spatial land use systems dynamic framework to simulate two alternative Mekong Delta futures based upon the climate pathway RCP 4.5 in combination with two existing policies (i) Resolution No. 124 (Specialisation) which promotes triple crop rice and aquaculture intensification and (ii) Resolution No. 639 (Diversification), which states that there should be a development of sustainable rice aquaculture and crop diversification. Based on the quantitative objectives of each policy, we estimated likely changes of services provided by land use systems if either policy were to dominate. The estimated impacts of each future scenario on the provision of employment ultimately indicate that policies with a diversification development paradigm will provide more employment (+0.9%) than policies with a specialisation paradigm (-46%), and that current policies have potentially conflicting consequences. Decisions driving towards intensive farming risk triggering rural unemployment and outmigration, potentially exacerbating urban poverty in major cities such as Can Tho and Ho Chi Minh City. On the other hand, decisions aiming at increasing diversified agricultural systems can help secure more job opportunities. Our results indicate that spatial planning policies should rely on a broad-based assessment of land system services that include employment and environmental impacts to ensure a just transition towards resilient and environmentally sustainable rural territories.