Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779–2015, inferred from tree rings
Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779–2015, inferred from tree rings
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-018-4072-z
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发表时间：
2018-10
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
I. Panyushkina;D. Meko;M. Macklin;M. Macklin;W. Toonen;N. S. Mukhamаdiev;V. Konovalov;N. Z. Ashikbaev-N.-Z
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Panyushkina;D. Meko;M. Macklin;M. Macklin;W. Toonen;N. S. Mukhamаdiev;V. Konovalov;N. Z. Ashikbaev-N.-Z
在干旱的中亚地区，水文预报和水资源管理对长期高分辨率的径流代用指标的需求很大。根据天山云杉树轮的水分敏感性数据，建立了1779-2015年哈萨克斯坦伊犁河1779-2015年9月流量的精确重建模型（R2= 0.53）。测量流量记录的五倍延伸代表了过去235年来哈什湖流域径流的变化。重建显示，在2000年代的前十年，在最近的高峰之前，有一个长达40年的低流量间隔，随后下降到自测量记录开始以来从未见过的最近的流量水平。大多数重建的流量极值（± 2σ）出现在仪器记录（1936-2015）之外，并且早于大坝建设开始（1969）。十年变化的伊犁流量对应的水文记录与其他欧亚大陆内部排水与树木年轮。谱分析确定的方差峰（最高近42年）与欧亚气候系统的主要半球振荡一致。伊犁排放与海平面压力和位势高度数据的季节性比较表明，高流量的时期可能是由于与西伯利亚高压系统和北大西洋涛动的北极空气环流的相互作用，雪径流的贡献增加。
Long highly-resolved proxies for runoff are in high demand for hydrological forecasts and water management in arid Central Asia. An accurate (R2= 0.53) reconstruction of October-September discharge of the Ili River in Kazakhstan, 1779–2015, is developed from moisture-sensitive tree rings of spruce sampled in the Tian Shan Mountains. The fivefold extension of the gauged discharge record represents the variability of runoff in the Lake Balkhash Basin for the last 235 years. The reconstruction shows a 40 year long interval of low discharge preceded a recent high peak in the first decade of the 2000s followed by a decline to more recent levels of discharge not seen since the start of the gauged record. Most reconstructed flow extremes (± 2σ) occur outside the instrumental record (1936–2015) and predate the start of large dam construction (1969). Decadal variability of the Ili discharge corresponds well with hydrological records of other Eurasian internal drainages modeled with tree rings. Spectral analysis identifies variance peaks (highest near 42 year) consistent with main hemispheric oscillations of the Eurasian climatic system. Seasonal comparison of the Ili discharge with sea-level-pressure and geopotential height data suggests periods of high flow likely result from the increased contribution of snow to runoff associated with the interaction of Arctic air circulation with the Siberian High-Pressure System and North Atlantic Oscillation.