Probability models to facilitate a declaration of pest-free status, with special reference to tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae)
Probability models to facilitate a declaration of pest-free status, with special reference to tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae)
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DOI：
10.1079/ber2004331
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发表时间：
2005-02-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Hargrove, JW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barclay, HJ;Hargrove, JW
提出了一种方法，以便于在消灭虫害运动之后宣布一个地区是“无虫害的”。这包括评估无效诱捕结果的概率模型，以及在等待一段时间后帮助验证控制停止时害虫不存在的增长模型。开发了两个概率模型，用于计算实际存在昆虫时出现负诱捕结果的概率。如果这一概率足够低，那么昆虫存在的假设就会被推翻。这些模型依赖于对陷阱的效率和吸引力区域的了解。为了验证概率模型的结果，需要一段等待期来查看是否出现反弹。如果在停止控制措施后仍有初期但无法检测到的人口，那么应该会出现反弹。利用生长模型，从一只怀孕的雌性或一只雄性和一只雌性开始检查昆虫种群的增长率。文中给出了控制终止后24个生育期的均值和置信限的计算实例。如果没有检测到反弹，则可以宣布根除。
A methodology is presented to facilitate a declaration that an area is `pest-free' following an eradication campaign against an insect pest. This involves probability models to assess null trapping results and also growth models to help verify, following a waiting period, that pests were not present when control was stopped. Two probability models are developed to calculate the probability of negative trapping results if in fact insects were present. If this probability is sufficiently low, then the hypothesis that insects are present is rejected. The models depend on knowledge of the efficiency and the area of attractiveness of the traps. To verify the results of the probability model, a waiting period is required to see if a rebound occurs. If an incipient but non-detectable population remains after control measures are discontinued, then a rebound should occur. Using a growth model, the rate of increase of an insect population is examined starting from one gravid female or one male and a female. An example is given for tsetse in which both means and confidence limits are calculated for a period of 24 reproductive periods after control is terminated. If no rebound is detected, then a declaration of eradication can be made.