An 11-year validation of wave-surge modelling in the Irish Sea, using a nested POLCOMS-WAM modelling system
An 11-year validation of wave-surge modelling in the Irish Sea, using a nested POLCOMS-WAM modelling system
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.12.006
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Wolf, Judith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Jennifer M.;Souza, Alejandro J.;Wolf, Judith
据信，由于气候变化，未来极端的沿海洪水事件将增加（频率和强度）。我们正在调查极端风暴事件在爱尔兰海东部造成的洪水风险。在这里，一个11年的模拟（01/01/1996-01/01/2007），包括波流相互作用已被验证。然后，这些数据可以用来调查潜在的沿海洪水在研究areas.To准确地模拟风暴事件在爱尔兰海东部的波浪效应和外部浪涌的影响需要考虑。为了模拟波浪，我们已经建立了一个单向嵌套的方法，从1度北大西洋模型，到1.85公里的爱尔兰海模型，使用最先进的第三代光谱波浪模型（WAM）。这允许正确地表示膨胀的影响。Proudman海洋学实验室的海洋模拟系统（POLCOMS）已被用来模拟潮涌相互作用。为了包括外部浪涌，我们已经建立了一个单向嵌套的方法，从1/9度的1/6度的业务大陆架浪涌模型，1.85公里的爱尔兰海模型。对于高分辨率的爱尔兰海模式，我们使用POLCOMS-WAM耦合模式，考虑到波流相互作用对海岸涌浪预测的影响，使用两种分类方案的耦合模式被证明是好的，往往很好地预测涌浪，总水位和波浪条件。我们还发现，在过去的十年中，研究区的低水平激增事件的数量有所增加。然而，这个时间段太短，无法确定波浪和浪涌水平的任何长期趋势。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
In the future it is believed that extreme coastal flooding events will increase (in frequency and intensity) as a result of climate change. We are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea posed by extreme storm events. Here, an 11-year simulation (01/01/1996-01/01/2007) including wave-current interaction has been validated. These data can then be used to investigate the potential for coastal flooding in the study area.To accurately model a storm event in the eastern Irish Sea both wave effects and the influence of the external surge need to be considered. To simulate the waves, we have set up a one-way nested approach from a 1 degrees North Atlantic model, to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model, using the state-of-the-art 3rd-generation spectral WAve Model (WAM). This allows the influence of swell to be correctly represented. The Proud-man Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal-Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) has been used to model the tide-surge interaction. To include the external surge we have set up a one-way nested approach from the 1/9 degrees by 1/6 degrees operational Continental Shelf surge model, to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model. For the high resolution Irish Sea model we use a POLCOMS-WAM coupled model, to allow for the effects of wave-current interaction on the prediction of surges at the coast.Using two classification schemes the coupled model is shown to be good and often very good at predicting the surge, total water elevation and wave conditions. We also find the number of low level surge events has increased in the study area over the past decade. However, this time period is too short to determine any long-term trends in the wave and surge levels. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.