The probability of causal conditionals
The probability of causal conditionals
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cogpsych.2006.05.002
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发表时间：
2007-02-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Sloman, Steven A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Over, David E.;Hadjichristidis, Constantinos;Sloman, Steven A.
自然语言中的条件句是推理和决策的核心。一个被称为Ramsey测试的理论提议暗示了条件概率假设：自然语言条件的主观概率P（如果p，则q）是条件主观概率P（q\p）。我们报告了三个实验的因果指示条件句和相关的反事实，支持这一假设。我们测量了人们分配给真值表案例的概率，P（pq），P（p-q），P（-pq）和P（-p-q）。从这些评级中，我们计算了三个独立的预测因子，P（p），P（q\p）和P（q\-p），然后我们将其输入回归方程，判断P（如果p，则q）作为因变量。与条件概率假设一致，P（q\p）是我们实验中迄今为止最强的预测因子。这个结果与因果条件是初等逻辑的实质条件的主张不一致。相反，它支持拉姆齐检验假设，这意味着共同的过程的基础上使用的条件推理和判断的条件概率决策。(C)2006爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q\p). We report three experiments on causal indicative conditionals and related counterfactuals that support this hypothesis. We measured the probabilities people assigned to truth table cases, P(pq), P(p-q), P(-pq) and P(-p-q). From these ratings, we computed three independent predictors, P(p), P(q\p) and P(q\-p), that we then entered into a regression equation with judged P(if p then q) as the dependent variable. In line with the conditional probability hypothesis, P(q\p) was by far the strongest predictor in our experiments. This result is inconsistent with the claim that causal conditionals are the material conditionals of elementary logic. Instead, it supports the Ramsey test hypothesis, implying that common processes underlie the use of conditionals in reasoning and judgments of conditional probability in decision making. (C) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.