The BJP’s Fragile Mandate: Modi and Vote Mobilizers in the 2014 General Elections
The BJP’s Fragile Mandate: Modi and Vote Mobilizers in the 2014 General Elections
复制标题
印度人民党的脆弱使命：2014 年大选中的莫迪和投票动员者
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Ostermann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pradeep K. Chhibber;S. Ostermann
人们普遍将印度人民党在 2014 年印度大选中的胜利归功于纳伦德拉·莫迪 (Narendra Modi)。在本文中，我们揭示了莫迪效应，并认为莫迪的成功与他吸引“选票动员者”（为该党竞选的个人）加入印度人民党的能力密切相关。 2014年，印度人民党的动员人数比任何其他政党都多。印度人民党 2014 年的投票动员人数也比 2004 年要多，而国大党的动员人数则较少。然而，这些动员者虽然能够提高其所选政党的投票率和选票份额，但却很少表现出政党忠诚度或党派偏见。相反，他们被获胜的候选人或政党所吸引。由于激励动员者的是“获胜能力”，他们对政党的支持是肤浅的，而且可能是短暂的。我们的结论是，印度人民党的胜利比许多人想象的更加脆弱。
It has become commonplace to attribute the BJP’s victory in the 2014 Indian general elections to Narendra Modi. In this article we unravel the Modi effect and argue that Modi’s success is tied to his ability to attract ‘vote mobilizers’—individuals who campaign for the party—to the BJP. In 2014, the BJP had more mobilizers than any other party. The BJP also had more vote mobilizers in 2014 than in 2004, while the Congress had fewer. However, these mobilizers, while capable of increasing both turnout and vote share for their chosen party, display little party loyalty or partisanship. Instead, they are drawn to a winning candidate or party. Since it is ‘winnability’ that motivates mobilizers, their support for a party is shallow and, potentially, fleeting. We conclude by claiming that the BJP’s victory is more fragile than many assume.