Unprecedented 21st century heat across the Pacific Northwest of North America
Unprecedented 21st century heat across the Pacific Northwest of North America
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41612-023-00340-3
复制
发表时间：
2023-02
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
K. J. Heeter;G. Harley;J. Abatzoglou;K. Anchukaitis;E. Cook;Bethany L Coulthard;Laura A. Dye;Inga K. Homfeld
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. J. Heeter;G. Harley;J. Abatzoglou;K. Anchukaitis;E. Cook;Bethany L Coulthard;Laura A. Dye;Inga K. Homfeld
夏季极端气温在北方半球越来越普遍，并造成严重的社会经济和生物后果。2021年夏季，北美西北太平洋地区（PNW）经历了长达两周的极端热浪，导致夏季气温破纪录。在这里，我们使用树木年轮记录来表明，2021年的夏季气温以及过去几十年夏季变暖的速度，在太平洋西北沿岸上个千年的背景下是前所未有的。在没有致力于将人为排放量减少到中等水平（SSP 2 -4.5）以下的情况下，气候模型预测表明，太平洋西北沿岸定期经历2021年极端夏季温度的风险迅速增加，到2050年每年发生的可能性为50%。太平洋西北沿岸2021年夏季的气温为历史上温带气候的社区提供了基准和动力，以在气候变化适应战略中考虑与极端高温相关的影响。
Extreme summer temperatures are increasingly common across the Northern Hemisphere and inflict severe socioeconomic and biological consequences. In summer 2021, the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) experienced a 2-week-long extreme heatwave, which contributed to record-breaking summer temperatures. Here, we use tree-ring records to show that summer temperatures in 2021, as well as the rate of summertime warming during the last several decades, are unprecedented within the context of the last millennium for the PNW. In the absence of committed efforts to curtail anthropogenic emissions below intermediate levels (SSP2–4.5), climate model projections indicate a rapidly increasing risk of the PNW regularly experiencing 2021-like extreme summer temperatures, with a 50% chance of yearly occurrence by 2050. The 2021 summer temperatures experienced across the PNW provide a benchmark and impetus for communities in historically temperate climates to account for extreme heat-related impacts in climate change adaptation strategies.