Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the US: A prediction model for India in 2020
Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the US: A prediction model for India in 2020
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138860
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Chanda, Arnab
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gupta, Sonal;Raghuwanshi, Gourav Singh;Chanda, Arnab
天气对COVID-19传播的影响知之甚少。最近，很少有研究声称温暖的天气可能会减缓全球大流行病，这已经影响了全世界160多万人。在受影响最严重的国家美国，澄清这种关系，对于理解天气在人口稠密国家（如印度）传播疾病中的作用非常有益。我们收集了2020年1月1日至4月9日期间美国50个州新增病例的每日数据以及相应的天气信息（即，温度（T）和绝对湿度（AH））。新病例在AH和T之间的分布模型有助于确定狭窄和脆弱的AH范围。我们验证了10天间隔的结果对每月的观察，以及全球趋势。这些结果被用来预测印度地区在2020年的未来几个月内容易受到天气传播的影响。无论研究参数选择的时间间隔如何，COVID-19在美国的传播对于4 < AH < 6 g/m3和新病例数> 10，000的州都是显著的。这些趋势与世界范围内的观察结果一致，但到目前为止与印度的相关性并不好，可能是因为每个间隔报告的总病例数<10，000。结果阐明了天气参数与COVID-19传播之间的关系。脆弱的天气参数将有助于对不同国家的危险地理区域进行分类。具体而言，随着印度新病例的进一步报告，预测基于天气的传播风险高的州将是显而易见的。
The effect of weather on COVID-19 spread is poorly understood. Recently, few studies have claimed that warm weather can possibly slowdown the global pandemic, which has already affected over 1.6 million people worldwide. Clarification of such relationships in the worst affected country, the US, can be immensely beneficial to understand the role of weather in transmission of the disease in the highly populated countries, such as India. We collected the daily data of new cases in 50 US states between Jan 1–Apr 9, 2020 and also the corresponding weather information (i.e., temperature (T) and absolute humidity (AH)). Distribution modeling of new cases across AH and T, helped identify the narrow and vulnerable AH range. We validated the results for 10-day intervals against monthly observations, and also worldwide trends. The results were used to predict Indian regions which would be vulnerable to weather based spread in upcoming months of 2020. COVID-19 spread in the US is significant for states with 4 < AH < 6 g/m3and number of new cases > 10,000, irrespective of the chosen time intervals for study parameters. These trends are consistent with worldwide observations, but do not correlate well with India so far possibly due the total cases reported per interval < 10,000. The results clarify the relationship between weather parameters and COVID-19 spread. The vulnerable weather parameters will help classify the risky geographic areas in different countries. Specifically, with further reporting of new cases in India, prediction of states with high risk of weather based spread will be apparent.