Theoretical perspectives on the infectiousness of Ebola virus disease
Theoretical perspectives on the infectiousness of Ebola virus disease
复制标题
埃博拉病毒病传染性的理论观点
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Chowell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Nishiura;G. Chowell
自2013年12月以来，埃博拉病毒病（EVD）在西非造成了大规模流行。这个小型审查的目的是澄清和说明不同的理论概念的传染性，以比较不同的传染病，包括EVD的传染性。MethodsWe采用了一个传输模型，依靠更新过程，以澄清理论概念的传染性，即基本繁殖数，R0，衡量每一代病例的传染性，传染力（即感染的危险率），内在增长率（即单位时间内的传染性）和每次接触的感染概率结果EVD的R0与流感相似，埃博拉病毒病的增长率（即每单位时间的传染性）比流感的增长率相对较低。此外，EVD和流感不同的传播模式，即每个接触的传播概率较低EVD相比，influenza.ConclusionsThe慢传播EVD与需要身体接触体液支持社会距离措施，包括接触者追踪和病例隔离。科学界和风险交流需要明确和客观地描述和解释量化传染性的不同变量。
BackgroundEbola virus disease (EVD) has generated a large epidemic in West Africa since December 2013. This mini-review is aimed to clarify and illustrate different theoretical concepts of infectiousness in order to compare the infectiousness across different communicable diseases including EVD.MethodsWe employed a transmission model that rests on the renewal process in order to clarify theoretical concepts on infectiousness, namely the basic reproduction number, R0, which measures the infectiousness per generation of cases, the force of infection (i.e. the hazard rate of infection), the intrinsic growth rate (i.e. infectiousness per unit time) and the per-contact probability of infection (i.e. infectiousness per effective contact).ResultsWhereas R0 of EVD is similar to that of influenza, the growth rate (i.e. the measure of infectiousness per unit time) for EVD was shown to be comparatively lower than that for influenza. Moreover, EVD and influenza differ in mode of transmission whereby the probability of transmission per contact is lower for EVD compared to that of influenza.ConclusionsThe slow spread of EVD associated with the need for physical contact with body fluids supports social distancing measures including contact tracing and case isolation. Descriptions and interpretations of different variables quantifying infectiousness need to be used clearly and objectively in the scientific community and for risk communication.
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1411100
发表时间：
2014-10-16
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
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作者：
WHO Ebola Response Team;Aylward B;Barboza P;Bawo L;Bertherat E;Bilivogui P;Blake I;Brennan R;Briand S;Chakauya JM;Chitala K;Conteh RM;Cori A;Croisier A;Dangou JM;Diallo B;Donnelly CA;Dye C;Eckmanns T;Ferguson NM;Formenty P;Fuhrer C;Fukuda K;Garske T;Gasasira A;Gbanyan S;Graaff P;Heleze E;Jambai A;Jombart T;Kasolo F;Kadiobo AM;Keita S;Kertesz D;Koné M;Lane C;Markoff J;Massaquoi M;Mills H;Mulba JM;Musa E;Myhre J;Nasidi A;Nilles E;Nouvellet P;Nshimirimana D;Nuttall I;Nyenswah T;Olu O;Pendergast S;Perea W;Polonsky J;Riley S;Ronveaux O;Sakoba K;Santhana Gopala Krishnan R;Senga M;Shuaib F;Van Kerkhove MD;Vaz R;Wijekoon Kannangarage N;Yoti Z
通讯作者：
Yoti Z