Extreme temperatures and circulatory mortality in a temperate continental monsoon climate city in Northeast China
Extreme temperatures and circulatory mortality in a temperate continental monsoon climate city in Northeast China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11356-022-23622-4
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发表时间：
2022-10-22
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Jiao, Haoran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ma, Yuxia;Li, Heping;Jiao, Haoran
流行病学研究证明，极端气温对公众健康有重大威胁。本研究的目的是调查2014年1月1日至2016年12月31日在中国东北寒冷气候城市哈尔滨的极端温度与循环系统死亡率之间的关系。我们设置了一个最大的滞后27天，以评估不同的温度对循环死亡率的滞后效应，使用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）。结果表明，日平均温度和循环死亡率均呈L型变化，低温和高温下累积相对危险度均随温度升高而不断降低。极低温对循环系统死亡率的影响具有滞后性和持久性，滞后26天的RR最大，为1.023（95%CI：1.001-1.046），0-27天累积冷效应的RR为1.302（95%CI：1.160-1.462）。极高温的影响表现得更加剧烈和强烈，滞后0时的最大RR为1.033（95%CI：1.004-1.063）。0- 3d累积热效应的RR为1.056（1.008-1.106）。此外，雌性更容易受到极低温度的影响，而雄性更容易受到极高温度的影响。本研究表明，在哈尔滨，极低温度比极高温度对循环死亡率有更强的影响。
Epidemiological studies have proven that extreme temperatures have a significant threat to public health. This study aimed to investigate the association between extreme temperatures and circulatory mortality from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2016, in Harbin, a city with a cold climate in Northeast China. We set a maximum lag of 27 days to evaluate the hysteresis effects of different temperatures on circulatory mortality using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Results indicated that daily mean temperature and circulatory mortality presented approximately an L-shaped, and the cumulative relative risks (RRs) decreased continuously as the temperature increased in both low and high temperatures. Extremely low temperature showed a hysteresis and durability on circulatory mortality, with the largest RR of 1.023 (95%CI: 1.001-1.046) at lag 26, and RR of the cumulative cold effect of 0-27 days was 1.302 (95%CI: 1.160-1.462). The effect of extremely high temperatures presented more acute and intense, with the largest RR of 1.033 (95%CI: 1.004-1.063) at lag 0. RR of the cumulative hot effect of 0-3 days was 1.056 (1.008-1.106). In addition, females were more susceptible to extremely low temperatures, while males were more vulnerable to extremely high temperatures. This study demonstrated that extremely low temperatures have a stronger effect on circulatory mortality than extremely high temperatures in Harbin.