Integrated assessment of urban water supply security and resilience: towards a streamlined approach
Integrated assessment of urban water supply security and resilience: towards a streamlined approach
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac78f4
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发表时间：
2022-07
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
E. Krueger;T. McPhearson;S. Levin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Krueger;T. McPhearson;S. Levin
城市化和相互竞争的水需求，以及不断上升的气温和不断变化的天气模式，正逐渐成为日益挑战城市供水安全的进程。城市还受到基础设施老化、机构根深蒂固和极端天气事件日益增多等交叉因素带来的严重风险的威胁。为了更好地了解这些多层次的，相互作用的挑战，为所有人提供城市供水，同时准备好应对反复出现的冲击，我们提出了一个综合分析的供水安全在纽约市及其对急性冲击和慢性干扰的恢复力。我们应用一个修订版的最近开发的，定量框架（“资本组合方法”，CPA），需要社会生态技术系统的角度来评估城市供水安全的水服务在家庭规模的性能。使用CPA的参数作为输入，我们使用一个耦合系统动力学模型来研究服务的动态响应冲击-在当前条件下，并在增加冲击发生和系统鲁棒性损失的情况下。我们发现，由于过去的冲击经验，供水安全性很高，目前对冲击的反应很有弹性。然而，我们确定了一些风险和脆弱性问题，如果不加以解决，可能会在中期内对城市的供水服务产生重大影响。我们的研究结果与世界各地的城市相关，并提出了关于未来如何保持安全和弹性的研究问题。
Urbanization and competing water demand, as well as rising temperatures and changing weather patterns, are manifesting as gradual processes that increasingly challenge urban water supply security. Cities are also threatened by acute risks arising at the intersection of aging infrastructure, entrenched institutions, and the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events. To better understand these multi-layered, interacting challenges of providing urban water supply for all, while being prepared to deal with recurring shocks, we present an integrated analysis of water supply security in New York City and its resilience to acute shocks and chronic disturbances. We apply a revised version of a recently developed, quantitative framework (‘Capital Portfolio Approach’, CPA) that takes a social-ecological-technological systems perspective to assess urban water supply security as the performance of water services at the household scale. Using the parameters of the CPA as input, we use a coupled systems dynamics model to investigate the dynamics of services in response to shocks—under current conditions and in a scenario of increasing shock occurrence and a loss of system robustness. We find water supply security to be high and current response to shocks to be resilient thanks to past shock experiences. However, we identify a number of risks and vulnerability issues that, if unaddressed, might significantly impact the city’s water services in the mid-term future. Our findings have relevance to cities around the world, and raise questions for research about how security and resilience can and should be maintained in the future.