Modelling spatio-temporal variation in exposure to particulate matter: a two-stage approach
Modelling spatio-temporal variation in exposure to particulate matter: a two-stage approach
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DOI：
10.1002/env.889
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Pless-Mulloli, T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fanshawe, T. R.;Diggle, P. J.;Pless-Mulloli, T.
调查空气污染暴露与健康结果之间关联的研究受益于对个体水平暴露的估计，但明确考虑暴露的时空变化在空气污染流行病学中相对较新。我们使用 1961 年至 1992 年间从泰恩河畔纽卡斯尔 20 个监测站定期收集的数据来解决估计空间和时间变化的颗粒物浓度（黑烟 = BS = PM4）的问题。我们提出了一个两阶段策略来建模 BS 水平。在第一阶段，我们使用动态线性模型来描述全地区平均BS水平的长期趋势和季节性变化。在第二阶段，我们在线性模型中考虑了监测器之间围绕区域平均值的时空变化，该模型包含整个研究区域中可用的一系列时空协变量，并测试残余时空相关性的证据。然后，我们根据受孕日期、出生日期以及母亲的居住地点，使用该模型将 BS 暴露的时间聚合预测以及相关的预测方差分配给研究区域在此期间发生的每个单胎妊娠。在单独报告的工作中，这些暴露估计值将用于调查母亲在怀孕期间接触 BS 与一系列出生结果之间的关系。我们的分析证明了如何使用合适的协变量来解释个体水平暴露中的残余时空变化，从而减少显式建模残余时空相关性的需要。版权所有 (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Studies investigating associations between air pollution exposure and health outcomes benefit from the estimation of exposures at the individual level, but explicit consideration of the spatio-temporal variation in exposure is relatively new in air pollution epidemiology. We address the problem of estimating spatially and temporally varying particulate matter concentrations (black smoke = BS = PM4) Using data routinely collected from 20 monitoring stations in Newcastle-upon-Tyne between 1961 and 1992. We propose a two-stage strategy for modelling BS levels. In the first stage, we use a dynamic linear model to describe the long-term trend and seasonal variation in area-wide average BS levels. In the second stage, we account for the spatio-temporal variation between monitors around the area-wide average in a linear model that incorporates a range of spatio-temporal covariates available throughout the study area, and test for evidence of residual spatio-temporal correlation. We then use the model to assign time-aggregated predictions of BS exposure, with associated prediction variances, to each singleton pregnancy that occurred in the study area during this period, guided by dates of conception and birth and mothers' residential locations. In work to be reported separately, these exposure estimates will be used to investigate relationships between maternal exposure to BS during pregnancy and a range of birth outcomes. Our analysis demonstrates how suitable covariates can be used to explain residual spatio-temporal variation in individual -level exposure, thereby reducing the need to model the residual spatio-temporal correlation explicitly. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.