US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths
US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1920391117
复制
发表时间：
2020-03-31
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Myrskyla, Mikko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mehta, Neil K.;Abrams, Leah R.;Myrskyla, Mikko
经过数十年的强劲增长，美国预期寿命的增长在 2010 年之后陷入停滞。对这一停滞的解释主要集中在与毒品相关的死亡人数上升上。在这里，我们发现心血管疾病（CVD）死亡率的停滞下降是罪魁祸首，其速度超过并掩盖了所有其他死因的影响。 2010 年至 2017 年间，CVD 停滞阻碍了美国女性和男性 25 岁预期寿命的增长 1.14 岁。药物相关死亡人数上升的影响要小得多：女性增加了 0.1 岁，男性增加了 0.4 岁。与其他高收入国家的比较表明，美国的心血管疾病停滞异常严重，导致美国与其他国家之间的死亡率存在明显差异。如果没有CVD死亡率下降的帮助，未来美国预期寿命的增长必须来自其他原因——考虑到早期CVD死亡率的巨大下降，这是一项艰巨的任务。药物过量流行病的逆转将是有益的，但不足以实现 2010 年之前的预期寿命增长速度。
After decades of robust growth, the rise in US life expectancy stalled after 2010. Explanations for the stall have focused on rising drug-related deaths. Here we show that a stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was the main culprit, out-pacing and overshadowing the effects of all other causes of death. The CVD stagnation held back the increase of US life expectancy at age 25 y by 1.14 y in women and men, between 2010 and 2017. Rising drug-related deaths had a much smaller effect: 0.1 y in women and 0.4 y in men. Comparisons with other high-income countries reveal that the US CVD stagnation is unusually strong, contributing to a stark mortality divergence between the US and peer nations. Without the aid of CVD mortality declines, future US life expectancy gains must come from other causes-a monumental task given the enormity of earlier declines in CVD death rates. Reversal of the drug overdose epidemic will be beneficial, but insufficient for achieving pre-2010 pace of life expectancy growth.