Real-time estimation of hazard for landslides triggered by rainfall
Real-time estimation of hazard for landslides triggered by rainfall
复制标题
降雨引发山体滑坡灾害的实时评估
DOI：
10.1007/s002540050303
复制
发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. Sirangelo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Iiritano;P. Versace;B. Sirangelo
通过建立降雨量与滑坡发生的关系模型，可以实时预测降雨引发的滑坡运动。本文讨论了FLAIR(降雨诱发滑坡预测)模型在历史信息可获得性较差的情况下用于预测滑坡运动的可靠性问题。在这种情况下，识别模型参数的容许域，而不是点估计，可以提高预测的可靠性。此外，这种方法使模型能够考虑暴雨期间体现的信息，但没有移动。介绍了滑坡运动的信息量和可预见性的概念，分析了它们的二元性。通过对意大利南部两个滑坡的应用，验证了所述估计方法的有效性。
Landslide movements triggered by rainfall can be foreseen in real-time by modelling the relationship between rainfall amount and landslide occurrence. This paper deals with the problem of the reliability of the FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfalls) model when applied to forecasting landslide movements in the usual condition of poor historical information availability. In this case, the identification of the admissibility field for the model parameters, instead of a point estimation, leads to an improvement of the forecasting reliability. Moreover, this approach makes the model capable of taking into account information embodied in periods of heavy rain but without movement. The concepts of informative content and foreseeability of landslide movements are introduced and their duality is analyzed. The effectiveness of the estimation procedure described has been tested by application on two landslides located in southern Italy.