Modeling oxythermal stress for cool-water fishes in lakes using a cumulative dosage approach
Modeling oxythermal stress for cool-water fishes in lakes using a cumulative dosage approach
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DOI：
10.1139/cjfas-2017-0260
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发表时间：
2018-08
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
M. Magee;P. McIntyre;Chin H. Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Magee;P. McIntyre;Chin H. Wu
湖泊变暖可以通过温度和氧气压力对冷水鱼产生负面影响。我们模拟了水柱温度和氧气的联合动态，以量化黄鲈（Perca flavescens）在鱼湖，威斯康星州，美国的富氧栖息地。为了估计年度氧热应激，我们开发了一种新的指标（累积氧热应激剂量; COSD），该指标整合了应激持续时间和应激强度。我们发现COSD比已发表的TDO 3度量（溶解氧为3 mg·L−1的深度温度）更好地预测了观测到的鲈鱼下降，该度量是为冷水鱼开发的。模拟显示，COSD在1911年至2014年期间增加，自1989年以来急剧上升。极端COSD年是由高最大日剂量和超过耐受阈值的持续时间延长的交叉点造成的。探索未来气候情景的温度扰动实验表明，如果大气变暖>3 °C，COSD将大大增加。将COSD指标广泛应用于温带湖泊，可以帮助将管理工作引向未来最有可能成为冷水和冷水鱼类气候避难所的生态系统。
Lake warming can negatively impact cool-water fishes through both temperature and oxygen stress. We modeled the joint dynamics of water column temperature and oxygen to quantify oxythermal habitat for yellow perch (Perca flavescens) in Fish Lake, Wisconsin, USA. To estimate annual oxythermal stress, we developed a novel metric (cumulative oxythermal stress dosage; COSD) that integrates both stress duration and stress magnitude. We find that COSD better predicts observed perch declines than the published TDO3 metric (temperature at depth where dissolved oxygen is 3 mg·L−1), which was developed for cold-water fish. Simulations show increases in COSD between 1911 and 2014, punctuated by a sharp rise since 1989. Extreme COSD years result from the intersection of high maximum daily dosage and prolonged duration exceeding the tolerance threshold. Temperature perturbation experiments to explore future climate scenarios reveal that COSD would increase greatly if the atmosphere warms by >3 °C. Applying the COSD metric broadly to temperate lakes could help direct management efforts toward the ecosystems most likely to serve as climate refugia for cold- and cool-water fishes in the future.