Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates.
Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0071797
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hickler T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feurdean A;Bhagwat SA;Willis KJ;Birks HJ;Lischke H;Hickler T
冰川期后树木迁移速度快于预期，长期以来一直困扰着生态学家。在欧洲，冰后期移民被认为是从三个南欧半岛（南部避难所）开始的，那里的大面积地区在最后一次冰期的高峰期仍然没有永久冻土和冰。然而，越来越多的古植物学证据表明，在更北的microrefugia孤立的树木种群的存在已经开始改变这种看法。在这里，我们使用的北方欧亚植物宏化石数据库和古生态学文献表明，冰川后迁移率的树木可能已大大低于（60-260米年-1）比那些假设从南部避难所只迁移（115-550米年-1）估计，和早期演替的树木迁移速度比中期和晚期演替的树木。冰川后的迁移率与最近预测的人口动态森林演替和扩散模型，主要是早期演替的树木和最佳条件下的未来是一致的。虽然这里提出的迁移估计可能是保守的，因为我们的假设均匀分散，树迁移率显然需要重新考虑。我们认为，小离群人口可能是一个关键因素，在了解过去的迁移率和预测未来潜在的范围转移。过去离群种群的重要性在未来可能会有类似的情况，因为许多树种已经种植在其自然范围之外，具有比其区域环境更有利的小气候。因此，未来气候变化引起的范围变化很可能受到这种微避难所的影响。
Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr–1) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr–1), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia.
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