Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters
Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters
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DOI：
10.1002/2016gl069022
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发表时间：
2016-06-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Neelin, J. David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bernstein, Diana N.;Neelin, J. David
共同体地球系统模式中的一个分支运行扰动物理集合估计了在全球变暖下深对流计划中的参数对当前水文气候和对世纪末降水变化预测的影响。事实证明，区域降水变化模式对这些参数高度敏感，特别是在局部变化超过3毫米/天的热带地区，与预测变化的幅度相当，并对耦合模式相互比较项目第五阶段模式之间的全球变暖预测差异具有可比性。这种敏感性在可行的参数范围内呈非线性分布，特别是在深对流方案中湍流卷吸参数的低卷吸范围内。这表明，参数敏感性研究的一个有用目标是确定这种不成比例的敏感危险范围。低夹带范围被用来说明如果根据当前气候的证据可以排除这一危险范围，可能发生的全球变暖区域降水敏感度的降低。
A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. The low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.