The Employment Impact of Autonomous Vehicles
The Employment Impact of Autonomous Vehicles
复制标题
自动驾驶汽车对就业的影响
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Ingram
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
David N. Beede;R. Powers;C. Ingram
预计自动驾驶汽车（AV）的推出将对劳动力需求产生潜在的深远影响。本文通过确定最有可能直接受到自动驾驶汽车业务采用影响的职业来探讨这种潜在影响。
2015年，有1550万美国工人从事的职业可能会受到自动驾驶汽车的影响（不同程度）。这相当于九分之一的工人。
我们将这些职业分为“机动车操作员”和“其他在岗驾驶员”。机动车驾驶员是驾驶车辆运送人员和货物的主要活动的职业，比其他驾驶相关职业更有可能被自动驾驶汽车取代。2015年，有380万人从事这些职业。这些工人主要是男性，年龄较大，受教育程度较低，报酬低于典型工人。机动车操作员的工作主要集中在运输和仓储部门。
其他在职司机使用道路机动车辆提供服务或前往工作地点，如第一响应者，建筑行业，维修和安装，以及个人家庭护理助手。2015年，这些职业中有1170万工人，他们主要集中在建筑，行政和废物管理，医疗保健和政府部门。与机动车操作员职业相比，在职驾驶员可能更有可能受益于自动驾驶汽车提供的更高的生产力和更好的工作条件。
The expected introduction of autonomous, or “self-driving,” vehicles (AVs) promises to have a potentially profound impact on labor demand. This paper explores this potential effect by identifying the occupations most likely to be directly affected by the business adoption of autonomous vehicles.
In 2015, 15.5 million U.S. workers were employed in occupations that could be affected (to varying degrees) by the introduction of automated vehicles. This represents about one in nine workers.
We divide these occupations into “motor vehicle operators” and “other on-the-job drivers.” Motor vehicle operators are occupations for which driving vehicles to transport persons and goods is a primary activity, are more likely to be displaced by AVs than other driving-related occupations. In 2015, there were 3.8 million workers in these occupations. These workers were predominately male, older, less educated, and compensated less than the typical worker. Motor vehicle operator jobs are most concentrated in the transportation and warehousing sector.
Other on-the-job drivers use roadway motor vehicles to deliver services or to travel to work sites, such as first responders, construction trades, repair and installation, and personal home care aides. In 2015, there were 11.7 million workers in these occupations and they are mostly concentrated in construction, administrative and waste management, health care, and government. Other-on-the-job drivers may be more likely to benefit from greater productivity and better working conditions offered by AVs than motor vehicle operator occupations.