Weather , Climate Change and Death in India
Weather , Climate Change and Death in India
复制标题
印度的天气、气候变化和死亡
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Greenstone
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Burgess;O. Deschenes;D. Donaldson;M. Greenstone
这篇论文揭示了环境温度对人类死亡的影响存在明显的不平等。利用1957年至2000年地区一级的每日天气和年度死亡率数据，我们发现，炎热的日子导致死亡率大幅增加，在农村，而不是城市印度。尽管贫穷得多，但印度城市的死亡率反应与同期美国的死亡率反应并无不同。研究潜在的机制，我们发现，农村死亡的影响是由炎热的日子在生长季节，降低了农业生产力和工资。与面对信贷约束的内生生存模型相一致，我们还发现，银行分支机构向印度农村地区的扩张有助于减轻这些影响。如果再加上一个气候学模型，预测到本世纪末，一个典型年份中的炎热天数会更多，那么这些估计意味着印度农村的预期寿命会大幅减少，而不是印度城市或美国的预期寿命。
This paper reveals a stark inequality in the effect of ambient temperatures on death in human populations. Using district-level daily weather and annual mortality data from 1957 to 2000, we find that hot days lead to substantial increases in mortality in rural but not urban India. Despite being far poorer, the mortality response in urban India is not dissimilar to that in the US over the same period. Looking into potential mechanisms we find that the rural death effects are driven by hot days in the growing season which reduce productivity and wages in agriculture. Consistent with a model of endogenous survival in the face of credit constraints, we also find that the expansion of bank branches into rural India helped to mitigate these effects. When coupled with a climatological model that predicts many more hot days in a typical year by the end of this century, these estimates imply considerable reductions in rural Indian, but not urban Indian or US, life expectancy ceteris paribus.