PREDICTING RETIREMENT SAVINGS USING SURVEY MEASURES OF EXPONENTIAL-GROWTH BIAS AND PRESENT BIAS
PREDICTING RETIREMENT SAVINGS USING SURVEY MEASURES OF EXPONENTIAL-GROWTH BIAS AND PRESENT BIAS
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DOI：
10.1111/ecin.12792
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Tasoff, Joshua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Goda, Gopi Shah;Levy, Matthew;Tasoff, Joshua
在一个具有全国代表性的样本中，我们使用基于调查的指数增长偏差（EGB）和当前偏差（PB）来预测退休储蓄。我们发现，EGB，忽视复合的倾向，和PB，重视现在而不是未来的倾向，是非常重要的和经济上有意义的退休储蓄预测。这些关系控制了认知能力、金融知识和一系列丰富的人口控制。我们解决测量误差作为一个潜在的混淆，并探讨这些偏见可能运作的机制。根据信封计算，取消EGB和PB将使退休储蓄增加约12%。(JEL D91、D14）
In a nationally representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey-based elicitations of exponential-growth bias (EGB) and present bias (PB). We find that EGB, the tendency to neglect compounding, and PB, the tendency to value the present over the future, are highly significant and economically meaningful predictors of retirement savings. These relationships hold controlling for cognitive ability, financial literacy, and a rich set of demographic controls. We address measurement error as a potential confound and explore mechanisms through which these biases may operate. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that eliminating EGB and PB would increase retirement savings by approximately 12%. (JEL D91, D14)