Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
S. S. Sayedi-S.;Benjamin W. Abbott;B. Thornton;J. Frederick;J. Vonk;P. Overduin;C. Schädel;E. Schuur;A. Bourbonnais;N. Demidov;A. Gavrilov;Shengping He;G. Hugelius;M. Jakobsson;Miriam C. Jones;D. Joung;G. Kraev;R. Macdonald;A. McGuire;C. Mu;M. O’Regan;K. Schreiner;C. Stranne;E. Pizhankova;A. Vasiliev;S. Westermann;J. Zarnetske;Ting-jun Zhang;M. Ghandehari;S. Baeumler;Brian C. Brown;Rebecca J Frei
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文献类型：
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作者：
S. S. Sayedi-S.;Benjamin W. Abbott;B. Thornton;J. Frederick;J. Vonk;P. Overduin;C. Schädel;E. Schuur;A. Bourbonnais;N. Demidov;A. Gavrilov;Shengping He;G. Hugelius;M. Jakobsson;Miriam C. Jones;D. Joung;G. Kraev;R. Macdonald;A. McGuire;C. Mu;M. O’Regan;K. Schreiner;C. Stranne;E. Pizhankova;A. Vasiliev;S. Westermann;J. Zarnetske;Ting-jun Zhang;M. Ghandehari;S. Baeumler;Brian C. Brown;Rebecca J Frei
北冰洋大陆架和周围海域含有大量的有机物（OM）和甲烷（CH 4），是国际气候协定中未包括的对气候变化的潜在生态系统反馈。我们进行了结构化的专家评估与25永冻土研究人员结合联合收割机的定量估计的股票和敏感性的有机碳在海底永冻土域（即末次冰期期间暴露的大陆架的未冰川部分）。专家们估计，海底永久冻土区在有机质中含有1.56亿吨碳（GtC; 170-740，90%置信区间），在甲烷中含有45 GtC（10-110）。目前流入水柱的甲烷和二氧化碳（CO2）通量估计分别为18（2-34）和38（13-110）兆吨C/年。根据代表性浓度路径（RCP）RCP8.5，到2100年（14-110），海底永久冻土区可能释放43 Gt CO2当量（CO2 e），到2300年（45-590）释放190 Gt CO2 e，在RCP 2.6下排放量减少约30%。不确定性的范围表明一个严重的知识差距，但提供了初步估计的幅度和时间的海底永冻土气候反馈。
The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.