A review of the trends observed in British Isles mean sea level data measured by tide gauges
A review of the trends observed in British Isles mean sea level data measured by tide gauges
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对不列颠群岛潮汐计测量的平均海平面数据观察到的趋势的回顾
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Shennan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Woodworth;M. Tsimplis;R. Flather;I. Shennan
本报告介绍了从潮汐计获得的不列颠群岛（BI）平均海平面（MSL）数据集的最新综述，以及BI MSL的长期长期趋势。这些数据质量参差不齐，考虑到BI海岸周围长期海平面和陆地高度变化的复杂性，这些数据并不像人们希望的那样丰富，无法进行科学分析。然而，少数非常长的记录可以被有效地研究，并表明BI MSL的20世纪长期趋势与从整个西北欧洲获得的趋势一致，并且与过去100年全球平均MSL变化估计的最低范围一致。从三个最长的记录中获得了MSL中0.4 - 0.8 mm /年的世纪时间尺度低频“加速度”，这也与欧洲大陆的估计相似。构建了BI的“海平面指数”，可以为主管机构提供BI海平面“平均状态”的指南。结合海潮和风暴潮（“潮汐+风暴潮”）的数值模拟被证明是一种有价值的工具，可以理解BI周围海面高度的部分变动性，尽管目前由于缺乏1955年以前足够的气象数据集，长期变化的模拟受到限制。然而，研究表明，即使有完整的气象模拟数据集，它也不能解释所有的MSL变率。最后，提出了在未来一个世纪内发展潮汐计和全球定位系统（GPS）记录的建议，以便进行长期的MSL监测。
SUMMARY This report presents an up-to-date review of the British Isles (BI) Mean Sea Level (MSL) data set obtained from tide gauges, and of the long-term secular trends in BI MSL. The data are of mixed quality, and not as copious as one would like for scientific analysis given the complexity of long-term sea and land level changes around BI coasts. Nevertheless, the small number of very long records can be studied eVectively, and indicate that twentieth century secular trends in BI MSL are consistent with those obtained from NW Europe as a whole and with the bottom range of estimates for global average MSL change during the past 100 years. Century-timescale low-frequency ‘accelerations’ in MSL of the order of 0.4‐0.8 mm yr’1 century’1 are obtained from the three longest records, which are also similar to estimates from mainland Europe. ‘Sea level indices’ for the BI are constructed which can provide responsible agencies with a guide to the ‘average state’ of BI sea level. Combined ocean tide and storm surge (‘tide+surge’) numerical modelling is demonstrated to be a valuable tool in understanding part of the variability of MSL around the BI, although modelling of long-term changes is limited at present by the lack of adequate meteorological data sets from before 1955. Nevertheless, it is shown that, even if a complete meteorological modelling data set were available, it would not be able to account for all of the MSL variability. Finally, recommendations are made for the development of tide gauge and Global Positioning System (GPS) recording in the BI for the purpose of long-term MSL monitoring in the next century.