The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities
The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities
复制标题
能源政策挑战与模型能力之间的差距
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.033
复制
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Kai Hufendiek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Georgios Savvidis;K. Siala;Christoph Weissbart;L. Schmidt;Frieder Borggrefe;Subhash Kumar;Karen Pittel;R. Madlener;Kai Hufendiek
雄心勃勃的脱碳目标、特定技术政策和计算发展导致能源系统模型的复杂性和多样性增加。然而，由于缺乏透明度和标准化，很难评估模型对具体政策问题的适用性。因此，本文系统地评估了能源系统模型回答主要能源政策问题的能力。它检查了现有的文献模型比较方案，然后提出了一套标准，比较样本的40个模型。此外，一种新的，面向模型的方法，以集群能源政策问题。最后，通过量化模型和政策问题之间的差距，将模型能力和政策问题结合在一起。结果表明，有些模型能够很好地回答广泛的能源政策问题，而另一些只适合于能源政策的特定领域。配电网的代表性，需求的内生调整和能源系统的技术灵活性是模型通常落后的特征之一。我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了关于能源政策问题的关键模型特征的指导，并为未来的能源系统建模提出了潜在的资金优先事项。
Ambitious decarbonization targets, technology-specific policies, and computational developments led to increases in the complexity and diversity of energy system models. The lack of transparency and standardization, however, renders the assessment of model suitability for specific policy questions difficult. Therefore, this paper systematically assesses the ability of energy system models to answer major energy policy questions. It examines the existing literature on model comparison schemes, then proposes a set of criteria to compare a sample of 40 models. Besides, a novel, model-oriented approach is developed in order to cluster energy policy questions. Finally, the model capabilities and the policy questions are brought together by quantifying the gap between models and policy questions. The results show that some models are very well able to answer a wide range of energy policy questions, whereas others are only suitable for a specific area of energy policy. The representation of the distribution grid, the endogenous adjustment of demand, and the technical flexibility of the energy system are among the features, where models generally lag behind. Our results provide policy-makers with guidance on crucial model features with respect to a selection of energy policy questions and suggest potential funding priorities for future energy system modeling.
影响因子：
9
作者：
Schaber, Katrin;Steinke, Florian;Hamacher, Thomas
通讯作者：
Hamacher, Thomas