Potential impact of climate change on canopy tree species composition of cool-temperate forests in Japan using a multivariate classification tree model
Potential impact of climate change on canopy tree species composition of cool-temperate forests in Japan using a multivariate classification tree model
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使用多元分类树模型研究气候变化对日本冷温带森林冠层树种组成的潜在影响
DOI：
10.1007/s11284-018-1576-2
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Tanaka N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matsui T;Nakao K;Higa M;Tsuyama I;Kominami Y;Yagihashi T;Koide D;Tanaka N
气候变化可能会改变植物群落的物种组成或丰度，预测这些变化对于制定气候变化适应政策非常重要。我们选择山毛榉（Fagus crenataBlume）及其竞争树种作为目标树种，使用多元分类树模型评估气候变化下森林类型的潜在周转率。为了构建该模型，九个目标物种的地理存在/不存在数据被用作多变量响应变量，五个气候因素被用作预测变量。计算了目标树种当前和未来的分布概率，并在当前山毛榉森林分布区域内将 15 种优势森林类型主观分类为约 1 平方公里的网格单元。预计未来所有 16,398 个以山毛榉为主的森林类型 (FCR-QCR) 网格单元将被五个以卷曲栎为主的类型（占 FCR-QCR 网格单元的 59%）、四个 Q 所取代。 serratatypes (22%)，二季度。水杨型 (8%)，或两种冷杉型 (0.1%)。仅 11.4% 的网格单元中 FCR-QCR 类型保持不变（稳定）；这些主要分布在该国日本海一侧的高海拔雪区。相比之下，在日本海和太平洋沿岸的低海拔地区都发现了脆弱的栖息地（未来山毛榉出现的概率小于1.0%）。尤其需要仔细监测栎属向北或向上的范围扩张或增加。
Climate change will likely change the species composition or abundance of plant communities, and it is important to anticipate these changes to develop climate change adaptation policies. We chose beech (Fagus crenataBlume) and its competitive tree species as target species to evaluate potential turnover in forest types under climate change using a multivariate classification tree model. To construct the model, geographical presence/absence data for nine target species were used as multivariate response variables, with five climatic factors were used as predictor variables. Current and future distribution probabilities for the target species were calculated, and the 15 dominant forest types were subjectively classified in approximately 1-km2grid cells within the area of the current beech forest distribution. All 16,398 grid cells of the beech-dominant forest type (FCR-QCR) were projected to be replaced in the future by fiveQuercus crispula-dominant types (59% of FCR-QCR grid cells), fourQ. serratatypes (22%), twoQ. salicinatypes (8%), or twoAbies firmatypes (0.1%). The FCR-QCR type remained unchanged (stable) in only 11.4% of grid cells; these were mainly distributed at high elevations in snowy areas on the Sea of Japan side of the country. In contrast, vulnerable habitats (future probability of beech occurrence less than 1.0%) were found at low elevations on both the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean sides. Northwards or upwards range expansions or increases ofQuercusspp., in particular, need to be carefully monitored.