Integrated stochastic approach for risk and service estimation: passing sight distance application
Integrated stochastic approach for risk and service estimation: passing sight distance application
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风险和服务估计的综合随机方法：超视距应用
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)te.1943-5436.0000366
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Hobeika
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Khoury;A. Hobeika
公路元素的几何设计基于一套标准，这些标准不考虑与这些设计相关的风险水平。需要确定包括风险措施在内的安全要素，并将其纳入设计过程。本文的重点是一个程序，可用于从业者作为一个框架，进行风险和服务措施的具体设计元素之间的权衡分析。该过程建立在影响任何公路元素的设计属性的参数的随机性之上。通过考虑确定参数的固有可变性，可以导出设计元素的随机分布。然后，使用随机模拟，可以测试每个设计值以评估其风险措施。因此，风险指数可以附加到随机分布中的每个设计值。最后，服务水平（LOS）的措施可以估计和LOS和安全之间的权衡分析可以进行。该应用程序集中在设计的通过视距（PSD），这是一个例子，传统上分析的公路元素没有风险措施。在分析中，与使用当前PSD标准相关的风险和LOS措施进行了评估。美国州公路和运输官员协会（AASHTO）的绿色图书价值被证明是保守的。《统一交通控制设备手册》（MUTCD）中的值在可接受的风险和服务水平（LOS）范围内。Language：en
The geometric design of highway elements is based on a set of standards that do not consider the risk levels associated with these designs. Safety elements including risk measures need to be identified and incorporated into the design process. The focus of this paper is a procedure that can be used by practitioners as a framework to conduct trade-off analyses between risk and service measures of specific design elements. The procedure builds on the randomness of parameters affecting the design attributes of any highway element. By accounting for the inherent variability of the determining parameters, random distributions of the design element can be derived. Then, using stochastic simulation, each of the design values can be tested to assess its risk measures. As a result, a risk index can then be attached to every design value in the random distribution. Finally, level of service (LOS) measures can be estimated and a trade-off analysis between LOS and safety could be conducted. The application focused on the design of the passing sight distance (PSD), which is an example of a highway element traditionally analyzed with no risk measures. Within the analysis, the risks and LOS measures associated with the use of the current PSD standards were assessed. The American Association of State Highways and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Green Book values were shown to be conservative. The Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) values fall within the acceptable risk and level of service (LOS) levels. Language: en