Tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles: descriptive statistics and historical variability in cyclone energy, 1638-2009
Tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles: descriptive statistics and historical variability in cyclone energy, 1638-2009
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-011-0360-x
复制
发表时间：
2012-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Divine, Dmitry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chenoweth, Michael;Divine, Dmitry
自1638年以来，小安的列斯群岛热带气旋活动的历史是用Chenoweth和Divine最近创建的数据集来描述的（Geochem Geophys Geosyst 9: Q08013, 2008）。我们通过描述性统计研究了小安的列斯群岛自1690年以来热带低气压、热带风暴和飓风的热带气旋季节性，以及仅自1638年以来的飓风。此外，每一个经过西经61.5度的热带气旋的最大估计风速（以节表示）(V （max)(2)）被用来计算每年沿西经61.5度的“小安的列斯群岛累积气旋能量”（LACE）。自1899年以来，LACE与全盆地累积气旋能量（ACE）呈正相关，相关性在北纬10 ~ 25A之间最高。LACE没有长期趋势的证据，这与以前文献中没有经过小安的列斯群岛的热带气旋数量的长期趋势一致。在北纬18至25度之间，LACE的50-70年变率明显类似，这很可能与北大西洋海面温度的多年代际变化有关。LACE在3 ~ 8年的较短时间尺度上的变化与ENSO的相应波动一致，其影响在低纬度地区更为明显。
The history of tropical cyclone activity in the Lesser Antilles since 1638 is described using a recently created data set first described in Chenoweth and Divine (Geochem Geophys Geosyst 9: Q08013, 2008). We examine through descriptive statistics the seasonality of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes since 1690 and for hurricanes only since 1638. In addition, the maximum estimated wind speed (expressed in knots) (V (max) (2) ) for each tropical cyclone passing through 61.5A degrees W is used to produce "Lesser Antilles accumulated Cyclone Energy" (LACE) for each year along the 61.5A degrees W meridian. LACE is positively correlated with basin-wide Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) since 1899 with the highest correlations from 10 to 25A degrees N. There is no evidence of long-term trend in LACE, which is in accord with previously-documented absence of long-term trends in the numbers of tropical cyclones passing through the Lesser Antilles. There is pronounced similar to 50-70 year variability in LACE from 18 to 25A degrees N most likely associated with multi-decadal variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. The LACE variations at the shorter time scales of similar to 3 to 8 years are coherent with correspondent fluctuations in ENSO with its effect more pronounced at lower latitudes.