High-speed railway and the intercity transmission of epidemics: Evidence from COVID-19 in China.
High-speed railway and the intercity transmission of epidemics: Evidence from COVID-19 in China.
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高铁与流行病的城际传播：来自中国 COVID-19 的证据
DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105934
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发表时间：
2022-09
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Wan, Qian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wan, Liyang;Wan, Qian
在武汉爆发COVID-19疫情的背景下，我们调查了在没有政府干预的情况下，城际高速铁路（HSR）连接对城际流行病传播的影响。城际高铁连接使每万人COVID-19患者人数增加0. 029人，占总感染人数的45%。我们的结果在几个稳健性评估中保持不变。高铁与武汉的连接造成的总经济损失估计为6.2亿美元。内部机制表明，城际高铁连接通过促进城市之间的人员流动增加了城市间COVID-19的传播。基于城市间的交通连接，我们的研究结果可以帮助政府预测病毒传播的方向和范围，控制疫情的城市间传播。
In the context of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, we investigate the effect of intercity high-speed railway (HSR) connections on intercity transmission of epidemics in the absence of government intervention. Intercity HSR connections increase the number of COVID-19 patients per 10,000 population by 0.029, accounting for 45% of the total infections. Our results remain intact in several robustness assessments. The total economic loss owing to HSR connections to Wuhan is estimated to be USD 0.62 billion. The internal mechanism demonstrates that intercity HSR connections increase intercity COVID-19 transmission by facilitating human mobility between cities. Based on intercity transportation connections, our findings can help the government predict the direction and scope of virus transmission and control the intercity transmission of epidemics.