Risk assessment of malaria transmission at the border area of China and Myanmar.
Risk assessment of malaria transmission at the border area of China and Myanmar.
复制标题
中缅边境地区疟疾传播风险评估
DOI：
10.1186/s40249-017-0322-2
复制
发表时间：
2017-07-06
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Zhou XN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shi B;Zheng J;Qiu H;Yang GJ;Xia S;Zhou XN
背景为实现消除疟疾的目标，中国政府于2010年启动了《国家消除疟疾规划》。但由于跨境人口流动增多，我国边境地区仍存在输入性疟疾病例风险，存在本地传播的潜在威胁。本文对中缅边境地区云南腾冲的间日疟原虫感染情况进行了调查。从基于网络的中国疾病预防控制信息系统中收集腾冲市2006 - 2010年的间日疟发病情况，并进一步将其分为输入性和本地性病例的时间序列。首先，利用黄土方法对输入病例的时间序列进行季节分解和趋势分解。其次，探讨了气候因子对P.使用线性回归模型（LRM）和广义加性模型（GAM）评估vivaxis。具体而言，矢量容量（VCAP）的概念被用来估计的传输潜力的P。结果腾冲市输入性病例的季节分布与瑞丽市不同，腾冲市输入性病例的季节分布呈单峰型，而瑞丽市输入性病例的季节分布呈双峰型。这可能是由于两个地方的人的不同跨境行为。传染媒介容量、输入病例数和平均湿度可以很好地解释肺吸虫病的局部发病率。vivax通过LRM和GAM方法。腾冲县的日最高气温比最低气温和平均气温更适合于计算VCAP。结论为实现我国消灭疟疾目标，本文的评估结果将为中缅边境地区疟疾的主动监测和控制提供进一步的指导。
BackgroundIn order to achieve the goal of malaria elimination, the Chinese government launched the National Malaria Elimination Programme in 2010. However, as a result of increasing cross-border population movements, the risk of imported malaria cases still exists at the border areas of China, resulting in a potential threat of local transmission. The focus of this paper is to assess thePlasmodium vivaxincidences in Tengchong, Yunnan Province, at the border areas of China and Myanmar.MethodsTime series ofP. vivaxincidences in Tengchong from 2006 to 2010 are collected from the web-based China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, which are further separated into time series of imported and local cases. First, the seasonal and trend decomposition are performed on time series of imported cases using Loess method. Then, the impact of climatic factors on the local transmission ofP. vivaxis assessed using both linear regression models (LRM) and generalized additive models (GAM). Specifically, the notion of vectorial capacity (VCAP) is used to estimate the transmission potential ofP. vivaxat different locations, which is calculated based on temperature and rainfall collected from China Meteorological Administraton.ResultsComparing with Ruili County, the seasonal pattern of imported cases in Tengchong is different: Tengchong has only one peak, while Ruili has two peaks during each year. This may be due to the different cross-border behaviors of peoples in two locations. The vectorial capacity together with the imported cases and the average humidity, can well explain the local incidences ofP. vivaxthrough both LRM and GAM methods. Moreover, the maximum daily temperature is verified to be more suitable to calculate VCAP than the minimal and average temperature in Tengchong County.ConclusionTo achieve malaria elimination in China, the assessment results in this paper will provide further guidance in active surveillance and control of malaria at the border areas of China and Myanmar.