The boomers are coming: A total cost of care model of the impact of population aging on the cost of chronic conditions in the United States
The boomers are coming: A total cost of care model of the impact of population aging on the cost of chronic conditions in the United States
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DOI：
10.1089/dis.2006.630
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发表时间：
2007-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Martini, E. Mary
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Garrett, Nancy;Martini, E. Mary
本研究的目的是估计未来50年美国人口老龄化对医疗费用的影响。具体来说，我们关注的是衰老对慢性和/或昂贵疾病的影响，这些疾病通常包括在疾病管理项目中：冠状动脉疾病（CAD）、充血性心力衰竭（CHF）、糖尿病、哮喘、妊娠、精神病学和化学品依赖。我们将估计的年龄、性别和特定条件的年化成本应用到未来几年（到2050年）每个年龄和性别群体的预计美国人口中，以提供未来医疗保健成本的估计。主要数据来源是一个中西部大型健康计划HealthPartners 2002年和2003年的索赔和会员汇总。次要资料来源是美国2003年的年度医疗费用和美国人口普查局对未来50年的人口预测。使用来自Symmetry的发作治疗组（ETG）分组，我们将HealthPartners的数据分为574个临床有意义的护理单元发作。然后，我们将选定的etg汇总到本研究报告的条件中。使用所有类型卫生服务的数据，我们发现老龄化将对老年人与年轻人的成本比例较大的疾病的人均成本产生更大的影响，如瑞士法郎、CAD和糖尿病。此外，我们预计，美国人口老龄化实际上会降低怀孕和不孕、化学药物依赖和精神疾病的人均成本。老龄化将对特定慢性病的护理产生更大的影响。这些预测可以为卫生保健提供者、卫生计划、疾病管理供应商和政府预测满足未来美国卫生保健需求的卫生政策和规划提供信息。
The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of population aging on medical costs over the next five decades in the United States. Specifically, we focus on the impact of aging on the chronic and/or expensive conditions most often included in disease management programs: coronary artery disease (CAD), congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes, asthma, pregnancy, psychiatry, and chemical dependency. We apply estimated age-, gender-, and condition-specific annualized costs to the projected US population in each age and gender group for future years, through 2050, to provide an estimate of future healthcare costs. The primary data sources are pooled claims and membership for 2002 and 2003 for HealthPartners, a large midwestern health plan. Secondary sources are US annualized medical costs for 2003 and US Census Bureau demographic projections for the next five decades. Using the Episodes Treatment Group (ETG) grouper from Symmetry, we grouped HealthPartners data into 574 clinically meaningful episodes of care units. We then aggregate selected ETGs into the conditions reported in this study. Using data for all types of health services, we find that aging will have a greater impact on per capita costs for diseases where the ratio of costs for older versus younger ages is greater, such as CHF, CAD, and diabetes. In addition, we project that aging of the US population will actually reduce per capita costs for pregnancy and infertility, chemical dependency, and psychiatric conditions. Aging will have more of an impact on care for specific chronic diseases. These projections can inform health policy and planning as providers of health care, health plans, disease management vendors, and the government anticipate meeting future US healthcare needs.