Evidence of Group-Based Economic Voting: NAFTA and Union Households in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election
Evidence of Group-Based Economic Voting: NAFTA and Union Households in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election
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基于群体的经济投票的证据：1992 年美国总统选举中的北美自由贸易协定和工会家庭
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Garrett Glasgow
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Garrett Glasgow
之前的研究没有发现基于群体的经济投票的证据。然而，这些研究依赖于对总体群体经济福祉的看法，选民可以通过总体经济状况等其他经济信息来追求这一目标。在这里，我通过考虑与特定群体经济利益相关的问题的看法来测试基于群体的经济投票，而这些利益不能简单地通过改善国民经济来满足。在控制其他经济利益的情况下，我发现对北美自由贸易协定造成的失业的担忧影响了 1992 年美国总统选举中工会家庭成员的投票行为，那些最担心北美自由贸易协定造成的失业的人更有可能投票给佩罗而不是克林顿。这些担忧并没有影响非团体成员的行为。这表明，一旦我们将基于群体的经济投票与其他类型的经济投票区分开来，就有证据表明它存在。
Previous research has found no evidence of group-based economic voting. However, these studies relied on perceptions of general group economic well-being, a goal which voters could pursue through other economic information such as the state of the general economy. Here I test for group-based economic voting by considering perceptions an issue related to group-specific economic interests that cannot be met simply through an improved national economy. Controlling for other economic interests, I find that concern with job losses due to NAFTA influenced the voting behavior of members of union households in the 1992 US presidential election, with those who were most concerned with job losses due to NAFTA more likely to vote for Perot over Clinton. These concerns did not influence the behavior of non-group members. This demonstrates that there is evidence of group-based economic voting once we disentangle it from other types of economic voting.