Do vehicle efficiency improvements lead to energy savings? The rebound effect in Great Britain
Do vehicle efficiency improvements lead to energy savings? The rebound effect in Great Britain
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104775
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Cullen, Jonathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Craglia, Matteo;Cullen, Jonathan
车辆燃料效率的提高降低了旅行成本，这可能会刺激司机旅行，进一步限制能源节约。对这种被称为反弹效应的效应的估计差异很大，部分原因是数据有限，而且依赖高度汇总的政府统计数据。相反，本文使用了超过2.75亿辆汽车道路性能测试的数据集。我们的数据集的高度细节首次揭示了英国不同类型车辆和社会经济地区对出行成本变化的反应可能存在差异。我们发现英国的反弹效应仅为4.6%，这意味着效率的提高不太可能在短期内刺激里程的增加。我们发现，更大，更低的燃油效率的车辆更容易响应燃料价格的变化比较小的vehides，在城市地区的司机比在农村地区的司机更容易响应燃料价格的变化。我们的研究结果揭示了燃油税和燃油经济性标准等政策可能对车辆行驶里程产生的影响。这对二氧化碳减排和社会公平都有影响。(C)2020爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Fuel efficiency improvements in vehicles reduce the cost of travel, which could stimulate drivers to travel further limiting energy savings. Estimates of this effect, known as the rebound effect, have varied widely, partly due to data constraints and a reliance upon highly aggregated government statistics. This paper instead uses a dataset of over 275 million vehicle roadworthiness tests. The high level of detail in our dataset can reveal, for the first time, how the response to changes in travel costs may differ across types of vehicles and socio-economic areas in Great Britain.We find that the rebound effect in Great Britain is just 4.6%, meaning efficiency improvements are unlikely to stimulate increased mileage in the short-run. We find that larger, less fuel efficient vehicles are more responsive to fuel price changes than smaller vehides and that drivers in urban areas are more responsive to fuel price changes than drivers in rural areas. Our findings shed light on the effects that policies such as fuel taxation and fuel economy standards may have on vehicle mileage. This has implications for both CO2 emissions savings and social equity. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.