Cross-sectoral impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland: implications for adaptation policy
Cross-sectoral impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland: implications for adaptation policy
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DOI：
10.1007/s10113-014-0679-8
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Metzger, Marc J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holman, Ian P.;Harrison, Paula A.;Metzger, Marc J.
了解苏格兰气候和社会经济变化的跨部门影响的重要性对适应政策至关重要。这项研究利用CLIMSAVE综合评估平台探讨了未来变化的直接和间接部门影响。苏格兰各地预测的影响存在很大的空间差异，从国家到区域范围内与气候不确定性相关的影响的变化方向上的不确定性越来越大。与社会经济变化相关的进一步不确定性导致13项指标(人工地表、生物多样性脆弱性、森林面积、土地利用强度、灌溉用途和土地利用多样性)中有6项在全国范围内具有稳健的变化方向，只有3项(人造地表、森林面积和灌溉用途)在苏格兰所有区域都具有稳健的趋势。社会经济情景假设(如粮食进口、人口和国内生产总值)、气候适宜性与农业生产力和盈利能力之间的复杂相互作用导致国家和区域土地覆盖类型的分布和范围发生重大变化，从而与水、林业和生物多样性产生跨部门的相互作用。因此，利益攸关方将CLIMSAVE参与性进程内强有力的适应政策选择定性为在所有情况下都对社会(和国家)有益的政策选择，无论影响的变化方向如何。将参与性情景制定过程和综合参与性建模框架纳入CLIMSAVE，使人们能够以结构化的方式探索未来的不确定性，并更好地体现了定性信息以及适应研究中的社会和体制背景的重要性。
Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.