Empirical agent based models of cooperation in public goods games
Empirical agent based models of cooperation in public goods games
复制标题
公共物品博弈中基于实证代理的合作模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Watts
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Wunder;Siddharth Suri;D. Watts
基于代理的模型是探索人类交互动态的一种流行方法，但这些模型很少基于对实际人类行为的经验观察。在这里，我们利用了在实验环境中收集的数据，其中超过 150 名人类玩家参与了一系列近百个公共物品游戏。首先，我们对数据拟合了一系列确定性模型，发现只有三个参数的合理简约模型在预测平均贡献的标准测试中表现得非常好。然而，这个模型在预测贡献的完整分布时表现极差，这种分布具有很强的双峰性。作为回应，我们引入并测试了一系列相应的随机模型，从而确定了一个既可以预测平均贡献又可以预测完整分布的模型。最后，我们部署该模型来探索有关实验可访问范围之外的参数空间区域的假设。特别是，我们调查了（a）之前的网络拓扑不会影响贡献水平的结论是否适用于比实验室研究规模大得多的网络； （b）观察到的贡献在多大程度上取决于平均网络度和度分布的方差，以及（c）贡献对度分类性的依赖性以及玩家的慷慨程度和他们被分配到的节点的度之间的相关性。
Agent-based models are a popular way to explore the dynamics of human interactions, but rarely are these models based on empirical observations of actual human behavior. Here we exploit data collected in an experimental setting where over 150 human players played in a series of almost a hundred public goods games. First, we fit a series of deterministic models to the data, finding that a reasonably parsimonious model with just three parameters performs extremely well on the standard test of predicting average contributions. This same model, however, performs extremely poorly when predicting the full distribution of contributions, which is strongly bimodal. In response, we introduce and test a corresponding series of stochastic models, thus identifying a model that both predicts average contribution and also the full distribution. Finally, we deploy this model to explore hypotheses about regions of the parameter space outside of what was experimentally accessible. In particular, we investigate (a) whether a previous conclusion that network topology does not impact contribution levels holds for much larger networks than could be studied in a lab; (b) to what extent observed contributions depend on average network degree and variance in the degree distribution, and (c) the dependency of contributions on degree assortativity as well as the correlation between the generosity of players and the degree of the nodes to which they are assigned.