Sensitivity of global wildfire occurrences to various factors in the context of global change
Sensitivity of global wildfire occurrences to various factors in the context of global change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.06.002
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Kaplan, Jed O.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Yaoxian;Wu, Shiliang;Kaplan, Jed O.
野火的发生对火灾气象学、植被类型和覆盖度非常敏感。我们调查了2000-2050年期间全球变化（包括气候，土地利用/土地覆盖和人口密度的变化）对野火频率的潜在影响。我们占火灾气象（如温度，降水量和相对湿度），植被密度，以及闪电和人为点火的变化相关的影响。预计2050年条件下的火灾频率将比2000年的水平增加约27%。据计算，亚马逊地区、澳大利亚和俄罗斯中部的火灾发生率显著增加，而东南非洲由于土地使用和人口的显著增加，火灾发生率呈大幅下降趋势。由2000-2050年气候变化驱动的火灾气象学变化将使全球年火灾总量增加约19%。在热带地区的火灾频率的适度增加（类似于4%）计算响应气候驱动的闪电活动的变化，相对于目前的水平。到2050年，气候变化和二氧化碳施肥量增加导致的土地覆盖变化预计将使全球野火发生率相对于2000年增加15%，而2000-2050年人为土地利用变化对全球野火频率的影响很小。预计2000-2050年全球人口的变化将使野火总数减少约7%。总体而言，在2000-2050年期间，未来火灾气象学的变化在增强未来全球野火方面发挥着最重要的作用，其次是土地覆被、闪电活动和土地利用，而人口密度的变化则表现出相反的影响。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
The occurrence of wildfires is very sensitive to fire meteorology, vegetation type and coverage. We investigate the potential impacts of global change (including changes in climate, land use/land cover, and population density) on wildfire frequencies over the period of 2000-2050. We account for the impacts associated with the changes in fire meteorology (such as temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity), vegetation density, as well as lightning and anthropogenic ignitions. Fire frequencies under the 2050 conditions are projected to increase by approximately 27% globally relative to the 2000 levels. Significant increases in fire occurrence are calculated over the Amazon area, Australia and Central Russia, while Southeast Africa shows a large decreasing trend due to significant increases in land use and population. Changes in fire meteorology driven by 2000-2050 climate change are found to increase the global annual total fires by around 19%. Modest increases (similar to 4%) in fire frequency at tropical regions are calculated in response to climate-driven changes in lightning activities, relative to the present-day levels. Changes in land cover by 2050 driven by climate change and increasing CO2 fertilization are expected to increase the global wildfire occurrences by 15% relative to the 2000 conditions while the 2000-2050 anthropogenic land use changes show little effects on global wildfire frequency. The 2000-2050 changes in global population are projected to reduce the total wildfires by about 7%. In general, changes in future fire meteorology plays the most important role in enhancing the future global wildfires, followed by land cover, lightning activities and land use while changes in population density exhibits the opposite effects during the period of 2000-2050. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.