Engineered migration and the use of refugees as political weapons:: A case study of the 1994 Cuban balseros crisis
Engineered migration and the use of refugees as political weapons:: A case study of the 1994 Cuban balseros crisis
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DOI：
10.1111/1468-2435.00205
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发表时间：
2002-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Greenhill, KM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Greenhill, KM
本文提出了1994年8月古巴巴尔塞罗危机的个案研究，在此期间，35 000多人在几个星期内逃离该岛并前往佛罗里达。它认为卡斯特罗发动这场危机是为了操纵美国对另一个玛丽埃尔的恐惧，并迫使美国在移民和更广泛的问题上改变政策。文章进一步指出，从卡斯特罗的角度来看，这种高压手段被证明是有限度的成功——这是他第三次成功地利用古巴人民作为对抗美国的不对称政治武器。此外，该论文还认为，卡斯特罗的成功是基于他有能力将自己的国内危机国际化，并将其转化为美国的国内政治和外交政策危机。最后，它对国家和/或非国家行为体如何、为什么以及在什么条件下可能试图利用难民作为强制性政治武器提供了一种新颖的解释。尽管与1980年马里埃尔（Mariel）的大规模偷渡船事件相比，1994年的危机显得微不足道，但它的重要性有几个原因。首先，尽管它很短暂，但它对美古关系产生了深远的影响。在没有任何警告或序言的情况下，它促成了美国对古巴移民政策的转变，这与过去30年的政策截然不同。其次，它在国家层面上影响了美国国内政治，扩大了这个问题的范围和突出程度，不仅动员了佛罗里达人，还动员了更广泛的公众对非法移民的关注。第三，这场危机说明了工程移民作为弱国不对称武器的潜在威力。最后，在这种情况下，国际和国内行动者的短暂但重要的相互作用值得审查，因为尽管1994年的危机是有限的，但其动态与无数其他大大小小的国际难民危机相似。因此，这个案例提供了宝贵的经验教训，可能有助于应对未来（真实的或潜在的）危机。
This paper presents a case study of the August 1994 Cuban balseros crisis, during which more than 35,000 fled the island and headed toward Florida in the span of a few weeks. It argues that Castro launched the crisis in an attempt to manipulate US fears of another Mariel, and in order to compel a shift in US policy, both on immigration and on a wider variety of issues. The paper farther contends that from Castro's perspective, this exercise in coercion proved a qualified success - his third such successful use of the Cuban people as an asymmetric political weapon against the US. In addition, the paper argues that Castro's success was predicated on his ability to internationalize his own domestic crisis and transform it into an American domestic political and foreign policy crisis. Finally, it offers a novel explanation of how, why, and under what conditions, states and/or non-state actors may attempt to use refugees as coercive political weapons. Although dwarfed in size by the larger 1980 Mariel boatlift, the 1994 crisis is important for several reasons. First, despite its brevity, it had far reaching consequences for US-Cuban relations. Without warning or preamble, it catalyzed a shift in US policy vis-A-vis Cuban immigration that represented a radical departure from what it had been for the previous three decades. Second, it influenced US domestic politics on the national level, by expanding the scope and salience of the issue, and mobilizing not only Floridians, but also the larger public concerned about illegal immigration. Third, the crisis illustrated the potential potency of engineered migration as an asymmetric weapon of the weak. Finally, the brief, but significant, interactions of international and domestic actors in this case warrant examination because, although the 1994 crisis was limited, in its dynamics it resembles myriad other international refugee crises, large and small. Thus the case offers valuable lessons that may aid in dealing with future (real or threatened) crises.