The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK)
The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.05.009
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发表时间：
2010-11-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Lowe, Jason
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chini, Nicolas;Stansby, Peter;Lowe, Jason
在沿海地区，由于海床水深、潮汐和涌浪，离岸波向海岸的传播受到水深变化的影响。考虑到气候变化对大气强迫和海平面上升的影响，一个简单的方法，包括数值模拟计算1960年至2099年的近岸波浪。模拟考虑了五种海平面线性上升的情景和一种风暴潮和近海海浪的气候情景。该方法适用于东安格利亚海岸（英国）。极端事件分析是为了估计气候变化对近岸波浪的影响和极端事件的发生。结果表明，对于这个沿海地区，波的统计是敏感的海平面上升的趋势，气候变化的情况下，导致显着增加的极端波高在北方的一部分域。对于近岸点，平均海平面的增加不仅改变了极端波高，而且改变了极端波况发生的频率。(C)2010 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
In coastal areas, offshore wave propagation towards the shore is influenced by water depth variations, due to sea bed bathymetry, tides and surges. Considering implications of climate change both on atmospheric forcing and sea level rise, a simple methodology involving numerical modelling is implemented to compute inshore waves from 1960 to 2099. Simulations take into account five scenarios of linear sea level rise and one climatic scenario for storm surges and offshore waves. The methodology is applied to the East Anglia coast (UK). Extreme event analysis is performed to estimate climate change implication on inshore waves and the occurrence of extreme events. It is shown, for this coastal region, that wave statistics are sensitive to the trend in sea level rise, and that the climate change scenario leads to a significant increase of extreme wave heights in the northern part of the domain. For nearshore points, the increase of the mean sea level alters not only extreme wave heights but also the frequency of occurrence of extreme wave conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.