Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems
Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.5855
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发表时间：
2018-10
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通讯作者：
Adam A. Scaife;L. Ferranti;O. Alves;P. Athanasiadis;J. Baehr;M. Déqué;T. Dippe;N. Dunstone;D. Fereday;R. Gudgel;R. Greatbatch;L. Hermanson;Y. Imada;Shipra Jain;Arun Kumar;C. MacLachlan;W. Merryfield;W. Müller;H. Ren;Doug M. Smith;Y. Takaya;G. Vecchi;Xiaosong Yang
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作者：
Adam A. Scaife;L. Ferranti;O. Alves;P. Athanasiadis;J. Baehr;M. Déqué;T. Dippe;N. Dunstone;D. Fereday;R. Gudgel;R. Greatbatch;L. Hermanson;Y. Imada;Shipra Jain;Arun Kumar;C. MacLachlan;W. Merryfield;W. Müller;H. Ren;Doug M. Smith;Y. Takaya;G. Vecchi;Xiaosong Yang
我们量化了14个气候预报系统对热带冬季降水的季节预测能力。对所有热带海洋盆地的年-年降水变异性存在高水平的季节预测技能。热带东太平洋地区是技能水平最高的地区，相关分数非常高，热带西太平洋地区的技能水平也很高。对热带大西洋和印度洋降雨的预测得分较低，但在统计上意义重大。
We quantify seasonal prediction skill of tropical winter rainfall in 14 climate forecast systems. High levels of seasonal prediction skill exist for year‐to‐year rainfall variability in all tropical ocean basins. The tropical East Pacific is the most skilful region, with very high correlation scores, and the tropical West Pacific is also highly skilful. Predictions of tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean rainfall show lower but statistically significant scores.