Prediction of traveller information and route choice based on real-time estimated traffic state
Prediction of traveller information and route choice based on real-time estimated traffic state
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DOI：
10.1080/21680566.2015.1052110
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发表时间：
2016-01
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Afzal Ahmed;D. Ngoduy;D. Watling
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文献类型：
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作者：
Afzal Ahmed;D. Ngoduy;D. Watling
准确描述现有交通状态对于使用智能交通系统制定有效的实时交通管理策略至关重要。动态交通分配（DTA）方法的现有应用主要基于宏观交通流模型的预测或传感器的测量，并且没有利用交通状态估计技术，该技术产生的交通状态估计比单独的预测或测量具有更少的不确定性。另一方面，强调实时交通状态估计的研究仅集中在交通状态估计上，并没有将估计的交通状态用于DTA应用。在本文中，我们提出了一个框架，该框架利用实时交通状态估计来通过旅行者信息系统优化事件期间的网络性能。实时交通状态的估计是通过将使用单元传输模型 (CTM) 的交通密度预测与扩展卡尔曼滤波器 (EKF) 递归算法中交通传感器的测量值相结合来获得的。估计的交通状态用于预测小型交通网络中替代路线上的出行时间，并且预测的出行时间通过可变消息标志（VMS）传达给通勤者。在双路线网络的数值实验中，所提出的估计和信息方法可以显着改善交通事件期间的出行时间和网络性能。
Accurate depiction of existing traffic states is essential to devise effective real-time traffic management strategies using intelligent transportation systems. Existing applications of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) methods are mainly based on either the prediction from macroscopic traffic flow models or measurements from the sensors and do not take advantage of the traffic state estimation techniques, which produce an estimate of the traffic states which has less uncertainty than the prediction or measurement alone. On the other hand, research studies which highlight the estimation of real-time traffic state are focused only on traffic state estimation and have not utilised the estimated traffic state for DTA applications. In this paper we propose a framework which utilises real-time traffic state estimate to optimise network performance during an incident through the traveller information system. The estimate of real-time traffic states is obtained by combining the prediction of traffic density using the cell transmission model (CTM) and the measurements from the traffic sensors in extended Kalman filter (EKF) recursive algorithm. The estimated traffic state is used for predicting travel times on alternative routes in a small traffic network, and the predicted travel times are communicated to the commuters by a variable message sign (VMS). In numerical experiments on a two-route network, the proposed estimation and information method is seen to significantly improve travel times and network performance during a traffic incident.