Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae
Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae
复制标题
OVATION Prime 作为可见极光预测模型的评估
DOI：
10.1029/2011sw000746
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
P. Newell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Machol;J. Green;R. Redmon;R. Viereck;P. Newell
本研究评估了OVATION Prime极光沉降模型提供可见极光业务预报的能力。业务应用主要是为公众观赏极光提供一些指导。我们评估了如果在某个位置预测可见极光，那么在一小时内就能在该地看到极光的可能性。利用1997年和1998年Kp≥3时的极紫外成像仪数据对夜间模型预报进行了验证。对可见极光出现或不出现的总体预报准确率为77%。对公众观赏极光最重要的预测是可见极光将会出现，这些预报的准确率为86%。
This study evaluates the ability of the OVATION Prime auroral precipitation model to provide operational forecasts of the visible aurora. An operational implementation would primarily provide the general public with some guidance for viewing the aurora. We evaluate the likelihood that if aurorae are predicted to be visible at a location, they will be seen there within the hour. Nighttime model forecasts were validated with Polar Ultraviolet Imager data for Kp ≥ 3 and for the years 1997 and 1998. The overall forecasts for a visible aurora to occur or to not occur were correct 77% of the time. The most important prediction for public auroral viewing is that the visible aurora will occur, and these forecasts were correct 86% of the time.