Political trust in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: a meta-analysis of 67 studies
Political trust in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: a meta-analysis of 67 studies
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DOI：
10.1080/13501763.2023.2169741
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发表时间：
2023-01-28
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
McKay, Lawrence
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Devine, Daniel;Valgarosson, Viktor;McKay, Lawrence
长期以来，对政治行为体和机构的信任被视为有效民主治理的关键。在2019冠状病毒病疫情期间，信任被广泛认为是缓解危机的关键，因为它对遵守公共政策、疫苗接种和许多其他社会态度和行为产生了影响。我们通过对来自全球近150万次观察的67项研究和426个个体效应量进行荟萃分析，研究信任是否确实预测了这些结果。政治信任作为一个解释变量，与疫苗接种、阴谋论信念和服从等结果有小到中等程度的相关性。这些相关性是异质的，我们表明，在卫生当局的信任是更强的疫苗接种比信任政府，但遵守更强的相关性比其他机构的政府。此外，美国的独特案例表明，对特朗普总统的信任对所有观察到的结果都有负面影响，除了增加阴谋信念。我们的分析还表明，研究设计特征（如反应量表）和发表偏倚并没有重要地改变结果。这些结果表明，信任对于管理这一流行病很重要，并支持了强调政治信任重要性的现有工作。
Trust in political actors and institutions has long been seen as essential for effective democratic governance. During the COVID-19 pandemic, trust was widely identified as key for mitigation of the crisis through its influence on compliance with public policy, vaccination and many other social attitudes and behaviours. We study whether trust did indeed predict these outcomes through a meta-analysis of 67 studies and 426 individual effect sizes derived from nearly 1.5 million observations worldwide. Political trust as an explanatory variable has small to moderate correlations with outcomes such as vaccine uptake, belief in conspiracy theories, and compliance. These correlations are heterogenous, and we show that trust in health authorities is more strongly related to vaccination than trust in the government; but compliance is more strongly related to the government than other institutions. Moreover, the unique case of the United States indicates that trust in President Trump had negative effects across all observed outcomes, except in increasing conspiracy beliefs. Our analysis also shows that research design features (such as response scales) and publication bias do not importantly change the results. These results indicate that trust was important for the management of the pandemic and supports existing work highlighting the importance of political trust.