Synthesis of first practices and operational research approaches in activity-based travel demand modeling
Synthesis of first practices and operational research approaches in activity-based travel demand modeling
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2006.09.003
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发表时间：
2007-06
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
W. Davidson;R. Donnelly;P. Vovsha;Joel Freedman;Steve Ruegg;J. Hicks;Joe Castiglione;R. Picado
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Davidson;R. Donnelly;P. Vovsha;Joel Freedman;Steve Ruegg;J. Hicks;Joe Castiglione;R. Picado
美国的区域旅行模式显然正在从传统模式向新一代更现实的基于活动的模式发展。新一代区域出行需求模型具有三大特点：（1）基于活动的平台，这意味着在家庭和个人进行的日常活动的一般框架内导出模型化旅行，（2）基于旅游的旅行结构，其中旅游被用作模型化旅行的基本单元，而不是基本旅行，以及（3）微观模拟建模技术，应用于个人和家庭的完全分离水平，将与活动和旅行相关的选择从分数概率模型结果转换为一系列离散或“清晰”的决定。虽然新一代模式较传统的四步模式在概念上有明显的优势，但在新一代模式全面取代传统模式之前，仍有许多技术问题需要解决，并应更好地了解实际效益。本文总结了美国大都市规划机构近年来在开发和应用基于活动的需求模型方面的成功经验。将基于活动的方法付诸实践，分析了广泛的背景下，旅游需求建模，市场趋势和政策的影响。
Regional travel models in the United States are clearly evolving from conventional models towards a new generation of more behaviorally realistic activity-based models. The new generation of regional travel demand models is characterized by three features: (1) an activity-based platform, that implies that modeled travel be derived within a general framework of the daily activities undertaken by households and persons, (2) a tour-based structure of travel where the tour is used as the basic unit of modeling travel instead of the elemental trip, and (3) micro-simulation modeling techniques that are applied at the fully-disaggregate level of persons and households, which convert activity and travel related choices from fractional-probability model outcomes into a series of discrete or “crisp” decisions. While the new generation of model has obvious conceptual advantages over the conventional four-step models, there are still numerous technical issues that have to be addressed as well as a better understanding of practical benefits should be achieved before the new generation of models can fully replace conventional models. The paper summarizes the recent successful experience in the development and application of activity-based demand models for Metropolitan Planning Organizations in the US. Moving activity-based approaches into practice is analyzed in a broad context of travel demand modeling market tendencies and policy implications.