Development and assessment of real-time fault model estimation routines in the GEONET real-time processing system
Development and assessment of real-time fault model estimation routines in the GEONET real-time processing system
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GEONET实时处理系统中实时故障模型估计例程的开发和评估
DOI：
10.1007/1345_2015_49
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
and S. Miura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kawamoto S.;K. Miyagawa;T. Yahagi;M. Todoroki;T. Nishimura;Y. Ohta;R. Hino;and S. Miura
最近开发的全球导航卫星系统和通信基础设施提供了实时位移数据，从而能够实时估计大地震的同震断层模型，并有可能改进海啸预警系统。在本文中，我们提出了两个实时同震断层模型估计程序中实现的GEONET实时处理系统：一个单一的矩形断层模型和俯冲板块界面上的滑动分布模型。我们评估了过去两次大板间地震的断层建模程序：2003年十胜冲地震和2011年东北地震。此外，我们还评估了潜在的大板间地震沿着南海海槽基于模拟的GPS时间序列。对过去两次大地震，我们得到了合理的同震简单矩形断层模型。与此相反，模拟的板间事件沿着南开海槽清楚地表明了巨大的优势，估计同震滑动分布的板块界面上。这些结果清楚地表明，在日本，根据全球导航卫星系统的实时数据，可靠地估计同震断层模型和/或俯冲板块界面上的滑动分布是可能的。这一结果将有助于建立一个更可靠的海啸预警系统。
The recent development of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and communication infrastructure provides real-time displacement data, enabling the real-time estimation of coseismic fault models for large earthquakes and the potential improvement of tsunami warning systems. In this paper, we present two real-time coseismic fault model estimation procedures implemented in the GEONET real-time processing system: a single rectangular fault model and a slip distribution model on the subducting plate interface. We evaluate the fault modeling procedures for two past large interplate earthquakes: the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Furthermore, we also evaluate a potential large interplate earthquake along the Nankai trough based on simulated GPS time series. We obtained reasonable coseismic simple rectangular fault models for the past two large earthquakes. In contrast, the simulated interplate event along the Nankai trough clearly indicates the great advantage of estimation of the coseismic slip distribution on the plate interface. These results clearly show that reliable estimation of the coseismic fault model and/or slip distribution on the subducting plate interface will be possible in Japan based on the real-time GNSS data. This result will contribute to a more reliable tsunami early warning system.