Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080
Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2005.1744
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发表时间：
2005-11-29
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
van Velhuizen, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fischer, G;Shah, M;van Velhuizen, H
对本世纪以来气候变化对农业生态系统的影响进行了全面评估，直至2080年，并在全球范围内进行了评估，尽管评估中包含了相当大的区域细节。为此，采用了一个综合生态经济模型框架，其中包括气候情景、农业生态区划信息、社会经济驱动因素以及世界粮食贸易动态。具体而言，使用粮农组织/国际农业生态系统协会农业生态区模型和国际农业协会的全球粮食系统模型，在政府间气候变化专门委员会的四种不同社会经济情景下，使用来自五个不同大气环流模型的气候变量进行全球模拟。首先，在5‘×5’纬度/经度的全球网格上，评估不同气候变化情景对生物物理土壤和作物生长的影响；其次，计算潜在的农业用地范围和相关的作物生产潜力。然后，将详细的生物物理结果输入经济分析，以评估气候影响可能如何与替代发展路径相互作用，并计算本世纪粮食需求、生产和贸易的主要趋势，以及饥饿和营养不良风险等关键综合指数。这种建模方法在一个统一和连贯的框架内将相关的生物物理和社会经济变量联系起来，以产生对气候变化下的粮食生产和安全的全球评估。这项研究的结果表明，气候和社会经济结构造成的关键影响不对称可能加深发达国家和发展中国家之间目前的生产和消费差距；研究表明，农业技术的适应将是限制气候变化潜在损害的核心。
A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socioeconomic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.