Species distribution modelling is needed to support ecological impact assessments
Species distribution modelling is needed to support ecological impact assessments
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DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.13782
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发表时间：
2020-11-05
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Gaston, Kevin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baker, David J.;Maclean, Ilya M. D.;Gaston, Kevin J.
立法通常要求在规划和发展过程中减轻对生物多样性的影响，并通过某种形式的生态影响评估确定潜在的影响。然而，对生物多样性的保护经常受到破坏，因为在为规划决策提供信息所需的空间尺度上，大多数地点对优先物种的分布知之甚少(即c1-100公顷)。规划申请经常根据机会主义记录进行筛选，以确定对优先物种的潜在影响。然而，原始发生记录只提供了关于检测到物种的位置的信息，不能用来指示物种是否可能不在现场。从这些数据中得出的关于物种出现在现场的可能性的推论只能通过适当的物种分布模型(SDM)框架来正确解释，该框架确保了对数据和模型的假设被形式化和文档化。我们认为，必须将SDM框架整合到生态影响评估中，以改善规划和发展过程中对生物多样性保护的支持。机会主义数据中的偏差和不确定性带来了建模挑战，但最近的方法进步可以将它们对预测的影响降至最低。我们主张与SDM工具、测绘产品和特定于规划过程的最佳实践指南的从业者共同制作。政策含义。将物种分布建模框架纳入生态影响评估，将确保在解释物种出现数据时的方法透明度和严谨性，从而加强规划和发展进程中的生物多样性保护。
Legislation commonly mandates the mitigation of impacts to biodiversity in planning and development processes, with potential impacts identified through some form of ecological impact assessment. Yet, protections for biodiversity are frequently undermined because the distributions of priority species are poorly known in most locations at the spatial scales required to inform planning decisions (i.e. c. 1-100 ha).Planning applications are often screened against opportunistic records to determine potential impacts to priority species. However, raw occurrence records provide information only on where a species has been detected and cannot be used to indicate if a species is likely to be absent from a site.Inferences drawn from these data on the likelihood of a species being present at a site can only be correctly interpreted through an appropriate species distribution modelling (SDM) framework that ensures assumptions about the data and models are formalised and documented. We argue that SDM frameworks must be integrated into ecological impact assessments to improve support for biodiversity protections within planning and development processes.Biases and uncertainties in opportunistic data create modelling challenges, but recent methodological advances can minimise their impacts on predictions. We advocate co-production with practitioners of SDM tools, mapping products and best-practice guidelines specific to planning processes.Policy implications. The integration of species distribution modelling frameworks into ecological impact assessments will strengthen biodiversity protections in planning and development processes by ensuring methodological transparency and rigour in the interpretation of species occurrence data.