A review of the UK and British Channel Islands practical tidal stream energy resource.
A review of the UK and British Channel Islands practical tidal stream energy resource.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspa.2021.0469
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发表时间：
2021-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Williamson B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coles D;Angeloudis A;Greaves D;Hastie G;Lewis M;Mackie L;McNaughton J;Miles J;Neill S;Piggott M;Risch D;Scott B;Sparling C;Stallard T;Thies P;Walker S;White D;Willden R;Williamson B
这篇综述对潮流能对英国和不列颠海峡群岛未来能源组合的实际贡献提供了关键的、多方面的评估。提供的证据大体上支持最新的国家规模实际资源估计，即34 太瓦时/年，相当于英国当前年电力需求的11%。实际资源的大小在一定程度上取决于项目的经济竞争力。在英国，124 兆瓦的未来潮流发电能力目前有资格竞标补贴支持(MeyGen 1C，80 兆瓦；PTEC，30 兆瓦；莫赖斯，14 兆瓦)。据估计，这一124兆瓦的安装将有助于通过学习将能源成本(LCOE)从目前的约17%降至低于17%的中级技术学习率。这样做将使潮流发电的成本与联合循环燃气轮机、生物质和厌氧消化等技术相比具有竞争力。到2031年安装这124千兆瓦将使潮流走上轨道，到2050年安装估计需要的11.5GW/年产生34 太瓦时所需的11.5千兆瓦。潮流发电的周期性、可预测性显示出提供额外的、全系统成本效益的潜力。这些措施包括在传统的LCOE估计中没有考虑的余额支出的减少。实际资源也依赖于环境约束。到目前为止，还没有检测到动物和涡轮机之间的碰撞，也只测量到栖息地的微小变化。大阵列对层化和捕食者-猎物相互作用的影响预计比气候变化的影响小一个数量级，突出了风险引退的机会。考虑到一些环境和生态影响模型中的不确定性，随着阵列规模的扩大，正在进行的现场测量将是重要的。根据本审查提出的结论，我们建议进行一项最新的国家规模实用资源研究，以实施高保真、特定地点的建模，并根据主要地点现有的广泛实地测量改进模型验证。量化实际资源对约束的敏感度对于创造退出约束的机会将是重要的。为了充分理解潮流在能源系统中的价值，有必要对整个系统的效益进行量化。
This review provides a critical, multi-faceted assessment of the practical contribution tidal stream energy can make to the UK and British Channel Islands future energy mix. Evidence is presented that broadly supports the latest national-scale practical resource estimate, of 34 TWh/year, equivalent to 11% of the UK’s current annual electricity demand. The size of the practical resource depends in part on the economic competitiveness of projects. In the UK, 124 MW of prospective tidal stream capacity is currently eligible to bid for subsidy support (MeyGen 1C, 80 MW; PTEC, 30 MW; and Morlais, 14 MW). It is estimated that the installation of this 124 MW would serve to drive down the levelized cost of energy (LCoE), through learning, from its current level of around to below , based on a mid-range technology learning rate of 17%. Doing so would make tidal stream cost competitive with technologies such as combined cycle gas turbines, biomass and anaerobic digestion. Installing this 124 MW by 2031 would put tidal stream on a trajectory to install the estimated 11.5 GW needed to generate 34 TWh/year by 2050. The cyclic, predictable nature of tidal stream power shows potential to provide additional, whole-system cost benefits. These include reductions in balancing expenditure that are not considered in conventional LCoE estimates. The practical resource is also dependent on environmental constraints. To date, no collisions between animals and turbines have been detected, and only small changes in habitat have been measured. The impacts of large arrays on stratification and predator–prey interaction are projected to be an order of magnitude less than those from climate change, highlighting opportunities for risk retirement. Ongoing field measurements will be important as arrays scale up, given the uncertainty in some environmental and ecological impact models. Based on the findings presented in this review, we recommend that an updated national-scale practical resource study is undertaken that implements high-fidelity, site-specific modelling, with improved model validation from the wide range of field measurements that are now available from the major sites. Quantifying the sensitivity of the practical resource to constraints will be important to establish opportunities for constraint retirement. Quantification of whole-system benefits is necessary to fully understand the value of tidal stream in the energy system.
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