Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Johnson, Leah R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ryan, Sadie J.;Carlson, Colin J.;Johnson, Leah R.
预测气候变化对艾滋病病毒，特别是登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒的影响是公共卫生准备工作的一个关键组成部分。我们应用经验参数化模型的病毒传播的载体埃及伊蚊和Ae。研究人员利用白纹伊蚊作为温度的函数来预测当前气候条件下全球月度累积传播风险，并将其与基于大气环流模型预测的2050年和2080年风险进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，如果蚊子的范围转移跟踪最佳温度范围的传播（21.3-34.0摄氏度的Ae。埃及伊蚊为19.9-29.4 ℃。白纹伊蚊），我们可以预期在伊蚊传播的病毒分布极移。然而，这两个矢量的不同热生态位在气候变化下产生不同的变化模式。更严重的气候变化情景产生更大的人口暴露于Ae的传播。埃及，但不是Ae。白纹伊蚊在最极端的情况下。在欧洲大部分地区，气候驱动的两种蚊子传播风险将大幅增加，即使是在短期内。相比之下，预计Ae的气候适宜性将显著降低。白纹伊蚊，最常见于东南亚和西非。在下一个世纪内，近10亿人受到新的伊蚊属和伊蚊属病毒传播的威胁。在最坏的情况下。由于全年传输风险的主要净损失预计为Ae。白纹伊蚊，我们预测全球转向跨区域的季节性风险。存在许多其他复杂因素（如蚊子活动范围限制和病毒进化），但总的来说，我们的研究结果表明，虽然气候变化将导致净接触和新接触伊蚊传播的病毒的增加，但最极端的增加是伊蚊。白纹伊蚊的传播预计发生在中等气候变化情景下。
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne virusesespecially dengue, chikungunya, and Zikais a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0 degrees C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4 degrees C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.