A MODEL OF THE CONSUMPTION RESPONSE TO FISCAL STIMULUS PAYMENTS
A MODEL OF THE CONSUMPTION RESPONSE TO FISCAL STIMULUS PAYMENTS
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DOI：
10.3982/ecta10528
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Violante, Giovanni L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kaplan, Greg;Violante, Giovanni L.
大量的经验证据发现，大约25%的财政刺激支出(例如，退税)在收到的那个季度花在了非耐用的家庭消费上。为了解释这一事实，我们建立了一个结构经济模型，其中家庭可以持有两种资产：低回报流动资产(例如现金、支票账户)和带有交易成本的高回报非流动性资产(例如住房、退休账户)。投资组合选择的最佳生命周期模式意味着，该模型中的许多家庭都是“勉强糊口的富人”：尽管他们拥有数量可观的非流动性资产，但他们持有的流动财富很少或根本没有流动财富。因此，他们表现出从额外的暂时性收入中消费的大倾向，以及因有关未来收入的消息而消费的小倾向。我们在《消费者财务调查》的数据中记录了这类家庭的存在。2001年退税事件的参数模型的一个版本得出的消费对财政刺激付款的反应与证据一致，而且比标准的“单一资产”框架大了一个数量级。该模型关于退税规模和普遍的总体经济条件的非线性对政策设计有影响。
A wide body of empirical evidence finds that approximately 25 percent of fiscal stimulus payments (e. g., tax rebates) are spent on nondurable household consumption in the quarter that they are received. To interpret this fact, we develop a structural economic model where households can hold two assets: a low-return liquid asset (e.g., cash, checking account) and a high-return illiquid asset that carries a transaction cost (e.g., housing, retirement account). The optimal life-cycle pattern of portfolio choice implies that many households in the model are "wealthy hand-to-mouth": they hold little or no liquid wealth despite owning sizable quantities of illiquid assets. Therefore, they display large propensities to consume out of additional transitory income, and small propensities to consume out of news about future income. We document the existence of such households in data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. A version of the model parameterized to the 2001 tax rebate episode yields consumption responses to fiscal stimulus payments that are in line with the evidence, and an order of magnitude larger than in the standard "one-asset" framework. The model's nonlinearities with respect to the rebate size and the prevailing aggregate economic conditions have implications for policy design.