Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean's ice factories.
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean's ice factories.
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北极海洋冰厂中海冰生产的上升和下降。
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-34785-6
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发表时间：
2022-12-17
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Richards, A. E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cornish, S. B.;Johnson, H. L.;Mallett, R. D. C.;Dorr, J.;Kostov, Y.;Richards, A. E.
北极海冰的数量、范围和年龄都在下降，但冬季海冰的产生似乎一直在增加，尽管北极变暖在冬季最为强烈。以前的研究表明，进一步变暖将在某个时候导致冰产量的下降，然而，迄今为止，对上升和下降的一致解释是缺失的。在这里，我们通过一个简单的线性模型来研究这些驱动因素。我们专注于卡拉和拉普捷夫海-有时被称为北极的“冰工厂”，因为它们在冰生产中发挥着巨大的作用，并在社区地球系统模型的大型包围圈（CESM-LE）的内部变化上训练模型。线性模型在解释内部变异性方面非常熟练，也可以解释冰产量的被迫上升然后下降，从而深入了解变化的竞争驱动因素。我们将我们的线性模型应用于基于观测数据的相同气候变量;近几十年来对冰产量的估计表明，就像CESM-LE一样，我们目前正在通过卡拉海和拉普捷夫海的冰产量峰值。冬季海冰的产生似乎一直在增加，尽管北极变暖在冬季最为强烈。在这里，作者研究了控制卡拉海和拉普捷夫海海冰生成的竞争因素，并开发了一个简单的模型，解释了气候变化下冰生成的上升和随后的下降。
The volume, extent and age of Arctic sea ice is in decline, yet winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Previous work suggests that further warming will at some point lead to a decline in ice production, however a consistent explanation of both rise and fall is hitherto missing. Here, we investigate these driving factors through a simple linear model for ice production. We focus on the Kara and Laptev seas-sometimes referred to as Arctic “ice factories” for their outsized role in ice production, and train the model on internal variability across the Community Earth System Model’s Large Ensemble (CESM-LE). The linear model is highly skilful at explaining internal variability and can also explain the forced rise-then-fall of ice production, providing insight into the competing drivers of change. We apply our linear model to the same climate variables from observation-based data; the resulting estimate of ice production over recent decades suggests that, just as in CESM-LE, we are currently passing the peak of ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas. Winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Here the authors examine the competing factors controlling sea ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas, and develop a simple model that explains the rise and subsequent fall of ice production under climate change.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Aagaard, K.;Woodgate, R. A.
通讯作者：
Woodgate, R. A.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Bigdeli A;Nguyen AT;Pillar HR;Ocaña V;Heimbach P
通讯作者：
Heimbach P
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Armitage, Thomas W. K.;Bacon, Sheldon;Kwok, Ron
通讯作者：
Kwok, Ron
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Hersbach, Hans;Bell, Bill;Thepaut, Jean-Noel
通讯作者：
Thepaut, Jean-Noel
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Dmitrenko, Igor A.;Kirillov, Sergey A.;Schroeder, David
通讯作者：
Schroeder, David