Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways
Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways
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DOI：
10.1007/s13143-013-0053-7
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Byun, Young-Hwa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baek, Hee-Jeong;Lee, Johan;Byun, Young-Hwa
我们提出的气候响应的代表性浓度路径（RCPs）使用耦合气候模式HadGEM 2-AO的耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）。RCP被选为气专委第五次评估报告的标准情景，这些情景包括温室气体和气溶胶的排放和浓度以及土地利用/土地覆盖的时间路径。相对于1986-2005年，21世纪最后20年的全球平均变暖和降水量增加分别为RCP2.6 + 1.1A ℃/+2.1%，RCP4.5 + 2.4A ℃/+4.0%，RCP6.0 + 2.5A ℃/+3.3%，RCP8.5 + 4.1A ℃/+4.6%。RCP2.6情景下的气候响应符合联合国哥本哈根雅阁的要求，即在21世纪末将全球变暖限制在2 ℃以内，RCP2.6和RCP8.5之间的缓解效果约为3A ℃。预计21世纪的降水量变化将在热带地区和高纬度地区增加，而在亚热带地区减少，这与预计的哈德利环流向极地扩展有关。预计北方半球高纬度地区的土壤湿度总变化将减少，中非和亚洲将增加，而根据变暖和蒸发的增加，大多数地区的近地表土壤湿度趋于减少。预计未来极端气候的趋势和强度也将与RCP的辐射强迫成比例地增加。对于RCP 8.5，在夏季结束时，北极预计将没有海冰。
We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1A degrees C/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4A degrees C/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5A degrees C/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1A degrees C/+4.6% for RCP8.5, respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3A degrees C between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.